This text belongs to 'Político', the newsletter that Lola García sends every Thursday to the readers of La Vanguardia. If you want to receive it in your mailbox, sign up here.
The lack of personal and political harmony between Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras is well known. In past years, the differences were marked by the decision that each one adopted after the failed declaration of independence, be it the “flight” or “exile” of Puigdemont (there are always those who are greatly offended by one word or another) or the trial. and prison in the case of Junqueras. The tension has remained because their two formations maintain a sleepless pulse that will be repeated in these elections on May 12, but it is sensed that, personally, they have ended up assuming greater mutual indifference.
In these Catalan elections they will not face each other directly because, paradoxically, the amnesty law favors Puigdemont when it comes to running for office. Junqueras will get involved in the campaign for the re-election of Pere Aragonès, but he cannot be the candidate because he is disqualified by the Supreme Court. On the other hand, Puigdemont, who has not been tried, keeps his electoral rights intact. Until now he could run but not take office as president of the Generalitat in the event of obtaining the necessary support as he is a fugitive from Spanish justice, but on this occasion he would be in a position to do so.
Puigdemont confirmed this Monday in an interview with Jordi Basté on RAC1 that he will return to Catalonia for the investiture session, whether he is fit to be president or not. During the last six years, despite threatening his return on several occasions, he has always avoided any risk that could lead to prison. Clearly he too has now weighed the chances of that happening and concluded that they are very low.
Indeed, the chances of him being imprisoned are slim. Because of the process, he has not even been tried, so it would not be likely that a judge would decree his provisional detention for a crime for which he is amnestied. Not even if the Supreme Court has doubts about the application of that rule in its case and presents a preliminary ruling before the European Court (CJEU). It would be a disproportion that could turn against the Supreme Court if the EU justice system sanctioned the law.
There are more doubts about the cases of treason (which is being followed in Barcelona) and terrorism (now in the Supreme Court). They are two crimes that are less clear whether or not they are included in the amnesty law (the wording was highly discussed between the PSOE and the independentists), although the argument for not decreeing his provisional detention could be the same as in the case of the process. .
His return raises many questions. If he were to win the elections and have enough support to become president, a period of great uncertainty would open in Catalonia and Spain. If he is not in a position to govern, Puigdemont has said that he would leave “active politics.” Former mayor Xavier Trias publicly asked him yesterday that he be the president of the party.
It is true that Puigdemont does not see himself in the opposition in the Parliament, but we will have to see what role he wants to play in Junts. The former president is not a person with a great fondness for organic, party politics, but his involvement in Junts' decisions in recent months is total and absolute. In fact, a complete withdrawal of Puigdemont from the life of the party would bring out internal differences over leadership that his figure keeps contained. In any case, it is difficult to imagine now that he does not want to continue tutoring in some way the negotiation with Pedro Sánchez. Puigdemont marked the terrain of that dialogue in a very personal way to completely ignore it now.
For his part, Junqueras has also remained very active in ERC. He has tried not to hinder the line of Pere Aragonès and his team, although he disagrees with many decisions, but he has followed in detail the day-to-day running of his game. If Aragonès did not achieve a good result, Junqueras would be a natural replacement, but the disqualification will not allow him to do so for a while. He has already been convicted and the application of the amnesty will be suspended in his case as soon as the Supreme Court presents its preliminary ruling to the CJEU. Junqueras will have to wait for that ruling (it is estimated that a minimum of six months) and foreseeably also for that of the Constitutional Court before seeing his disqualification lifted.
That October 2017 in which each one opted for a different path has marked their destinies and will continue to do so for a while because it does not seem that their intentions are to abandon politics in one way or another.
