Emmanuel Macron, who the Constitution prevents from being re-elected in 2027, has two obsessions: maintaining the reformist halo in his second term and preventing the doors of the Elysee from opening to the extreme right in 2027. Both objectives are interconnected. If the next few years are barren and eventful, the way will be paved for Marine Le Pen to win the presidency.
The political and social crisis caused by the pension reform has weakened Macron and placed him in the most delicate situation since he came to power in 2017. On the contrary, Le Pen, twice defeated by the current president, sees as their electoral base widens. She is the unanimous opinion of political analysts, from conservatives to leftists. The leader of the main union (CFDT), Laurent Berger, has also warned about what is coming. A recent poll by Le Journal du Dimanche confirmed this. If there were legislative elections today, the National Rally (RN), Le Pen's party, would obtain 26% of the vote, almost seven points more than in the elections last June. The leftist coalition (Nupes) would remain at 26%. Macron's party (Renaissance) would remain at 22%, almost five points less.
It is obvious that between now and 2027 the scenario may change, but these figures confirm the fears that have been expressed confidentially by Macron's entourage for months, long before the pension fiasco. The nightmare of the macronistas is that what happened in the United States be repeated, where, after two terms of Democrat Barack Obama, Donald Trump won. It would be a disastrous legacy for a young and ambitious, Europeanist team that sought to modernize France with a centrist and liberal program.
The day before yesterday, the newspaper Libération published a close-up of Le Pen looking back, with a lurking dot, and this headline: “The beneficiary”. The weekly L'Obs, in its penultimate issue, also chose the far-right leader for its front page. “The silent conquest”, he titled.
In its editorial, L'Obs was fatalistic. "In the corridors of power a certain panic is installed," wrote the director of the magazine. The question is no longer if she can win the next presidential elections but if she can still lose ”.
Libération pondered how to stop the rise of the extreme right. "Only a left that is both offensive and credible in its desire for social transformation will be able to act as a wall," warned the newspaper, a historic forum for French progressivism.
The paradoxical thing about Le Pen is that, without doing much of anything, with a passive and expectant attitude towards the pension reform, without offering any alternative, he rises in the polls. The extreme right takes advantage of the clumsy management of Macron and his government, as well as a histrionic radical left with some manners typical of anti-system and extra-parliamentary forces.
Since she succeeded her father as head of the party, more than twelve years ago, Marine Le Pen has proceeded to demonize and normalize her party, even changing its name. He has been clearly successful in his endeavor. In April of last year, she garnered almost 41.5% of the vote against Macron in the second round of the presidential elections. In the legislative, RN got 88 seats, never seen before.
This large parliamentary troop constitutes a key factor, a lever to project the party further upwards and improve the expectations of Le Pen if he aspires to the Elysée again –for the fourth consecutive time– in 2027. It is said, in fact, that after After losing again against Macron, she considered withdrawing, but the excellent results in the legislative elections made her change her mind.
In a National Assembly in which the macronistas have only a relative majority and where the anger is constant -especially due to the attitude of the radical left-, the far-right deputies, with some exceptions, try to give an institutional image, of seriousness, starting with the use of the tie. Even more decisive is his work in the constituencies. The representatives of the extreme right are already part of the landscape and are shaking off the stigma of undesirables. They do it methodically, patiently. They attend receptions and public events, forge relationships with mayors and councilors of small towns and cities, and are helpful to voters when they ask for help with administrative procedures.
Faced with a macronism in clear decline and a left that is radicalizing, Le Pen and his followers are there, taking advantage of popular discontent and presenting themselves as a calm, solid force, waiting to reach a critical mass so that their victory seems natural. and unavoidable.
