The Europeans have lost much of the confidence they had in a Ukrainian victory. Two years after the last Russian invasion, only 10% believe that Ukraine will be able to recover the occupied territories. Those who think Russia will prevail are now twice as many. The majority opinion, in any case, is that this war will end at a negotiating table.
The latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (CERE), which La Vanguardia publishes exclusively, reflects the pessimism and fatigue of European public opinion with a war that seems far from being resolved.
The first survey, carried out in June 2022, four months after the Russian invasion, already showed the majority's concern about a long conflict. So the dominant opinion, although narrowly, called for a quick solution. Peace was a priority, even if Ukraine lost territory. Those who, on the contrary, defended that Ukraine should fight to the end were in the majority in the second survey, carried out last year. For them there was no possible compromise with the Kremlin, especially in light of the Ukrainian advances. They also understood that Europe and the United States should support the Ukrainian cause with weapons and money without fissures and for as long as necessary.
Now, this enthusiasm has sunk. The failure of the counteroffensive last spring and summer has convinced many Europeans that the Ukrainian army will not be able to defeat the much larger and better armed Russian one. In the last battle of Avdiyivka, Russia had about 50,000 men. This force outnumbered the Ukrainian defense by 8 to 1. The Kremlin has also built up an important military industry and has gained very powerful allies, such as India, China and Iran, who buy it oil, help it avoid sanctions and, as is the case of the Islamic Republic, provide it with the drones that allow it to maintain air supremacy.
The latest CERE survey, carried out in twelve EU countries last January, hardly gives Ukraine any option to recover the lost territory. 10% believe that they will not win the war, 20% maintain that Russia will and 37% believe that an agreement will be reached. This means that, at best, Ukraine will be divided, as is Cyprus.
Ivan Kastrev and Mark Leonard, authors of the study, warn that European leaders must define what they consider to be a victory for Ukraine and on what basis a “sustainable peace” can be established. “Many European leaders – they argue – are aware that the Ukrainians have a very difficult time reaching a satisfactory agreement from a militarily weak position. And the Europeans will only have the moral right to advise Ukraine on its military aspirations if they have delivered the weapons and money they have promised.” In any case, "the only way to convince Ukraine that there is no other way out than to accept territorial sacrifices is by offering it security guarantees and integration into the EU in exchange."
Ukraine has open paths to the EU and NATO, but no one hides that they will be long and difficult.
“Wars – as Krastev and Leonard explain – take place on the battlefield, but they usually end at the ballot box.” The examples of Vietnam in the United States and Algeria in France are very clear. The results of the European elections in June and, especially, the North American elections in November could be decisive for the future of Ukraine. If Trump returns to the White House – something that 56% of Europeans see as disappointing – he is very likely to abandon Ukraine to its fate. In this case, Europeans will have to decide whether to maintain their support or force an agreement.
Fatigue is evident in many countries and, paradoxically, it is more pronounced in Ukraine's own neighbors. In Poland, Hungary and Romania there are many more people who believe that Ukrainian refugees are a problem rather than an opportunity. In Sweden, Spain and Portugal it is the other way around.
Tensions over the import of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU have been greater in eastern countries. The solidarity of the early days of the war, when the borders were opened to refugees, is no longer so evident.
Putin has always said that time is on Russia's side and that, in the end, Europe will have no choice but to accept his conditions. He calculates that the longer the calendar runs, the worse things will be for Ukrainians on the ground and the worse things will be for European leaders, pressured by their own voters.
The majority of respondents, furthermore, do not have much confidence that the EU can, on its own, help Ukraine effectively. The skepticism, in this sense, is very notable despite the fact that Brussels has just given the green light to 50 billion euros in economic and military aid. This package, together with the $60 billion that US President Joe Biden has promised, should allow Ukraine to resist for at least one more year.
But the underlying question remains the same: to what end? To defeat Russia or to force a negotiation from a position of greater balance?
Brussels does not have an answer and will not have one until after the June elections. The same thing happens in Washington. We have to wait for the November polls.
This wait is faced with great anxiety. Most Europeans do not want Putin to get his way, especially with the help of a reborn Trump in the White House. There is a majority opinion in favor of maintaining or increasing aid to Ukraine in case the US withdraws. Only in Austria, Romania, Italy, Hungary and Greece are the majority in favor of withdrawing when the US does so.
Very few, in any case, are sure of victory, and hence the inclination to seek a negotiated solution. However, at the same time, many believe that the future of Europe is at stake and that the EU has an inescapable responsibility. Citizens are aware of the challenge and the limitations.
The coming months, as the survey warns, will be complicated. “A Russian victory – maintain Krastev and Leonard – will not bring peace. And if the price of ending this war is turning Ukraine into a no-man's land, it will be a defeat for Kyiv and for all of Europe. In the event that there is a negotiation, it will be important for Ukrainian and Western public opinion to know what is on the table and what is not. What is non-negotiable is the democratic and pro-Western future of Ukraine.”
