Nimrod Goren is a leading analyst of Israeli politics. President of the Israel Regional Foreign Policy Institute and collaborator of the IEMed, he was in Barcelona this week.
Can Netanyahu survive?
More than 70% of Israelis want him to resign, and this has remained constant since the start of the war. It does not necessarily reflect an ideological shift, it is not that Israelis are abandoning the conservative camp, but that they have lost confidence in the prime minister. It is not only the failure of October 7, it is also the failure of his policies before and after. Their behavior since the war began seems more focused on their political survival than on national interests. People don't like that. Most Israelis, even within the political camp of the right, would prefer to see someone else as prime minister.
If their objectives are met in Gaza, will the tide not turn in their favor?
He's working on it. He is very skilled, has been in power for a long time and has managed to get out of all kinds of difficult situations. The scenario in which he manages to survive exists. If that's the likely scenario, I don't know. I think he should not continue ruling Israel. No prime minister of any ideological persuasion should continue after such a disaster. There are high-ranking generals saying or implying that they will resign when the war is over. Netanyahu, no.
Has October 7 not reinforced the thesis of a tough line on the Palestinians offered by the right?
First we must understand how deep the trauma of October 7 is. Israelis are still trapped in that day. Something they never experienced before. For many it is another chapter of the Holocaust. Society is still processing that event and that means there are a lot of questions about things people believed in before. People see that the political concepts they believed in have failed, but they are still not sure what they want. In times of war, people lose faith in the other side, they do not trust their intentions or the prospects for peace. There is a paradox, because Israelis move more to the right in terms of ideas, but according to surveys they move towards the center in terms of voting behavior. The party that emerges is the centrist alliance of Benny Gantz.
Would Gantz push for a new policy with the Palestinians?
Israel has a political system based on coalitions, so it will not depend on it alone. What Netanyahu is doing is influenced by his own ideology, but also by his associates, radicals like Ben-Gvir or Smotrich. If someone like Gantz is prime minister, in principle it will be a more centrist coalition. But diverse in terms of ideology, like the previous government of Bennett and Lapid. There will be people who support the two-state solution and people against it. But it will be easier to collaborate with this government.
In the current spiral of violence it seems difficult, but is there hope for peace after this horror?
For all of us who support a peace agreement with the Palestinians and want Israel to reach its potential and not live in war, the two-state solution is the only viable option. Some say that it is not as feasible, but there is no other that is more feasible. And throughout history moments of crisis in Arab-Israeli relations also led to moments of opportunity. The problem now is that war is not with whom peace will be made.
Hamas continues to gain popularity. Israel may defeat Hamas militarily, but isn't it making it stronger?
Israel will weaken Hamas's ability to impose a military threat or govern Gaza. Now, what that means for the ideological transition within Palestinian society depends on who will govern the Palestinians in the future. In terms of governance, Hamas has been a catastrophe for which Israel cannot be blamed.
Don't you think Hamas would win the elections in the West Bank?
There is no way to know. There have been no elections for a long time. Celebrating them would be a good thing, Palestinian leadership should be decided by the Palestinians, not the Israelis. Arab countries would probably also want to say theirs. Opinions have to do with existing leadership. Barguti is in jail. Abas is not seen as a credible leader. But I don't think Hamas is an attractive instrument for the Palestinian national movement in the West Bank. Maybe they are skeptical of the two-state solution but they want a Palestinian state that is not religious, that is not based on Islamic law.
Is conviced? Polls also show strong support for Hamas in the West Bank.
I talk to people who represent the Palestinian national struggle but who believe in compromise and dialogue, much like President Abbas. It is a basic notion of condemning terrorism and seeking compromise, which does not mean giving up your national aspirations and rights, but the way you try to achieve them is through negotiation. Perhaps some would like to see another intifada or more fighting, but not the Hamas model. But one problem is that, according to the same survey, many in the West Bank do not believe that Hamas did what it actually did. And that has to do with the role of West Bank leaders, but also of other Arab countries, in denouncing what Hamas did. You can be pro-Palestinian, you can criticize Israel, but it is necessary to condemn what Hamas did and call it what it is.
None have done it.
Bahrain only. And for many Israelis it is a disappointment, especially with the Arab countries with which we have peace and normalization but still do not recognize what happened on October 7. It has an impact on Arab public opinion because if they don't hear it from their leaders, are they going to believe the Israelis?
The majority view in the Arab world is that October 7 is a consequence of Israel's continued policy of mistreatment of the Palestinians.
This conflict has lasted for decades and there have been very difficult moments, also for Israel, with Hamas terrorist attacks with buses and cafes exploding in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. But what's happening now is on multiple levels increasingly brutal and more horrifying, and it's natural to expect people to recognize that without it meaning you can't have your own positions. Someone needs to show how it's done, in all its complexity. That's leadership. Mansur Abbas, who is the leader of the Islamic party in Israel, has bluntly condemned what Hamas did, although that does not change his own position. That is something Israelis want to hear from the region and the international community.
The problem is that it seems that what Israel is looking for is carte blanche to bomb Gaza. Hasn't he gone from victim to aggressor?
Israel is used to being criticized by the international community. The determining factor in the Israeli calculation. They are the positions of its allies in the international arena. The main one, the US and President Biden was very clear from day one. The objectives of the war have clear support from you and also, by the way, from the leaders of the EU and several European leaders. The US has set conditions to maintain its support, which Israel is taking into account. There is the opening of the Kerem Shalom pass or the fuel entrance. It also takes into account the concerns of neighbors, such as Egypt. And support for Israel remains, even from Arab leaders. They don't say it, but in fact they support it. If Biden and Borrell and Macron and Schultz still support us, that's fine. In the Israeli mentality, that is what matters. We have to manage this, it is an existential threat. The world is going to like us less, what can we do? Israel did not start the war, it did not want it, it had to respond. Does anyone have an alternative? It doesn't seem like there are any on the table, at least publicly. So Israel ends up doing what it knows how to do.
