Beijing's revenge has not been long in coming, after the third consecutive victory of Taiwan's sovereigntists in the presidential elections held this Saturday. This same Monday, the tiny republic of Nauru declared the severing of diplomatic relations with Taipei with immediate effect, accompanied by the recognition of the People's Republic of China. Taiwan has already responded by announcing the closure of its embassy on the Pacific island, "out of national dignity."
In this way, the list of full members of the UN that continue to consider the Republic of China - the official name of Taiwan - as the legitimate representative of China falls below the dozen for the first time.
The announcement, broadcast on Facebook via video by President David Adeang, highlights that Nauru adheres to the "one China" principle. "The Republic of Nauru no longer recognizes the Republic of China as a separate country, but as an inalienable part of the territory of China and breaks 'diplomatic relations' with Taiwan as of today, so that it will no longer maintain relations or exchanges officials," said the president of this Micronesian nation. Adeang was elected by his parliament just two and a half months ago, but he is the oldest politician on the island, having held the presidency of the House twice.
The president of Nauru says he is acting for the country's progress and has recalled that the island already maintained relations with Beijing between 2002 and 2005. Beijing's Foreign Ministry has been quick to express its "appreciation" for the decision, as well as its willingness to "open a new chapter in relationships."
It should be said that the Chinese Communist Party has been gradual, methodical and relentless when it comes to snatching allies from Taipei, during the sovereign governments of the Democratic Progressive Party (PDF). Between 2000 and 2008 there were nine (although three did the opposite or recanted). And between 2016 and 2023 there were nine more, including some relatively notable ones, such as Nicaragua.
In the case of the sparsely populated Pacific nations, the strategic importance goes beyond the economic one. Nauru, for example, has barely 12,500 inhabitants, spread over just over 20,000 square kilometers. The island, which uses the Australian dollar, has one of its main sources of income in its immigration detention and selection center, serving Australia.
During the last term, the change of allegiance of the Solomon Islands or Kiribati has led to a spectacular increase in Beijing's influence in those waters. In the case of Vanuatu, to the point of forcing Washington to also open an embassy. But many of these countries, more than a change of sides, what they seek is a balance, given the preponderance in the region of aligned powers such as the US, Australia, New Zealand, France, the United Kingdom and Japan. A counterweight that Taiwan obviously cannot offer.
They may seem like symbolic setbacks for Taiwanese sovereigntists, but no less symbolic are the majority of their remaining diplomatic partners, including three other Pacific nations, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, as well as Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. and Saint Kitts and Nevis, in the Caribbean. In fact, there have been times when Beijing has discouraged or delayed some accession changes, in accordance with its own political agenda.
The recent revalidation of the presidency of Taiwan by the sovereign Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), this time with former vice president Lai Ching-te as its candidate, has upset mainland China. Although he has the consolation that those in favor of not breaking bridges with Beijing have obtained 60% of the votes and have a majority in the Legislative Yuan, for the first time in eight years.
In any case, the Taipei government has described Beijing's latest move as an "ambush" and an "attack on democracy", at the same time - they have said - when so many countries congratulate Taiwan for the development of its elections. "They can't stand it if we don't bend to their pressure and elect whoever we want," said Deputy Foreign Minister Tien Chung-kwang.
Tien has suggested that China had offered money to Nauru. Although the truth is that Taiwan also offers considerable compensation for its remaining diplomatic support. Among the most visible, in the Pacific, are exchange scholarships and thousands of computers over the last few years. However, the fight with Beijing seems lost in this area.
In any case, the result of the elections in Taiwan, with one of lime and another of sand, at least does not raise the temperature in the Strait of Formosa more than it was. Beijing maintains that reunification "is inevitable" and that a formal declaration of independence would be a declaration of war.
The People's Republic is not impatient because it knows that the relationship of forces evolves in its favor with each passing year. We must not forget that, until 1971, it was the government of Taipei and not that of Beijing that occupied China's seat in the UN General Assembly. A year later, US President Richard Nixon met with Mao in Beijing, following Henry Kissinger's advice to exploit the rivalry between China and the U.S.S.R.
At the end of that decade, Washington closed its embassy in Taipei to open it in Beijing - as several of its allies had already done, including Spain - but not before dismantling its military bases, which had lost their usefulness with the end of the Vietnam War. .
Among Taipei's last twelve remaining allies, most are sparsely populated islands or archipelagos. The most notable exceptions are Guatemala and Paraguay, countries historically aligned with the hardline of US foreign policy. They are also practically the only countries that accompany or have accompanied the United States in its controversial decision to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to West Jerusalem.
In fact, the news surprised Taiwan's Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, in Guatemala City, on the occasion of the eventful inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo. It is no wonder, since Guatemalans represent practically half of the 0.5% of the world population that still recognizes the Republic of China.
While Asunción reversed its decision shortly after a change of government, Guatemala has not yet done so. Although its new president, Arévalo - who was finally able to take office this Monday, after hours of boycott by other State institutions - promised during the campaign to reconsider the location of his embassy. Arévalo knows first-hand the situation in Israel, since he lived there for ten years and speaks Hebrew. His father was an ambassador in Tel Aviv and he himself studied Sociology at an Israeli university.
Returning to Taipei, who also declares himself surprised is the Nauruan ambassador himself, who limits himself to confirming the order "to pack your bags." He thus reduces a little more the meager formal community of diplomats in the capital of ancient Formosa. However, the informal community is much larger, since dozens of countries maintain other types of representations, under other names - starting with the United States - and, of course, they continue to gladly accept the Taiwanese passport. As well as, let us not forget, that of Hong Kong or Macao, which under the policy of "one country, two systems", preserve several of their specificities, after shelving the colonial stage and rejoining China.
