The polls in Italy do not leave much room to the imagination. If there are no last minute surprises, the right-wing coalition will resoundingly prevail in the elections on September 25. And it will do so with the clear leadership of Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, political heir of the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement and who, in the latest polls, is taking off as the country's leading party. He is already at 24.4% of intention to vote, according to the latest average of national surveys. More than two points above Enrico Letta's Democratic Party (PD), and almost double that of his ally and rival, Matteo Salvini, who risks finishing fourth. A monumental blow for the leader of the League.
Meloni is preparing to move to the Chigi Palace, the seat of the Executive, and is completing a meticulous operation to try to soften his image and not cause an earthquake in the markets or a heart attack for some representatives in Brussels. He regretted from the beginning the aggressive tone he used during his speech against gender ideology or the LGBTI community at the Vox rally in Marbella, words that shook Europe. The version that he gave this past weekend at the Ambrosetti financial forum in Cernobbio, an Italian-style mini-Davos, was totally different. He now he says what he has to say to try to convince that it won't be a problem. "I am not in favor of widening the budget deficit because we are too indebted," he said, following the line of Mario Draghi. In foreign policy, he promises continuity: not to take a single step back from Russia because Italy's "international credibility" is at stake. The sanctions and the shipment of weapons will continue. A few years ago he was anti-euro. Now, in an interview with Reuters, he hastened to reassure the establishment that he will not be in constant conflict with Europe. He intends to travel to London soon and personally congratulate the new prime minister, Liz Truss.
Meloni's immediate problem is not in Brussels but in Italy, and his name is Matteo Salvini. Desperate to make up some points and not fall behind the 5 Star Movement at the polls, he is trying to differentiate himself from the president of the Brothers of Italy with totally contradictory messages. He does question the sanctions against Russia because he believes they don't work, fueling fears that Italy will become the EU's weak point against Moscow. He wants the country to go into even more debt to face the energy emergency, unlike Meloni. He does not even agree on immigration, a battle horse for the extreme right. Although both agree to prevent the entry of new immigrants to Italy, they propose different ways. Salvini, recovering his work when he was Minister of the Interior and started a war against the NGOs. Meloni, with a "naval blockade," which his critics believe would violate international law.
According to a reconstruction of La Repubblica, Meloni already thinks of four key ministries, Foreign, Economy, Defense and Interior, where to place trusted people with a favorable vision of the interests of Washington and Brussels. Build a cordon sanitaire against tolerance with the Kremlin of the League. For Economy, he would be thinking of a technical profile that the Commission likes, since it also aspires to review the recovery plan. “It is not heresy”, he defends, “because it was designed before the current situation”. Media speculation points to Fabio Panetta, a member of the executive council of the European Central Bank (ECB). For Foreign Affairs or Defense he could appoint Antonio Tajani, Silvio Berlusconi's number two and former president of the European Parliament, who has the permission of the leader of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber, to govern hand in hand with the extreme right.
The dialogue between Draghi and Meloni is fluid, and there is even a personal harmony, reports La Stampa. "Yes, Meloni speaks with Draghi, he knows that he is the right thing for the good of the country," an assistant from Brothers of Italy tells this newspaper. His circle wants to send the message that the transition of power will be smooth. He recalls that, even in the opposition, Meloni has always supported Draghi in Ukraine. They cite a recent speech by Draghi in Rimini to argue that the former ECB president has legitimized his chief of ranks by stating that he is convinced that “the next government, whatever its political color, will be able to overcome the difficulties that today seem insurmountable”.
In the same speech, however, Draghi also warned against "protectionism and isolationism." The warning from the still-acting prime minister is clear: "From the autarkic illusions of the last century to the sovereignist impulses that recently pushed to leave the euro, Italy has never been strong when it has decided to go it alone." According to sources close to the president, Draghi has always been willing to maintain contacts with all the political leaders who have requested it, he has been vigilant when it comes to involving the opposition in the decisions of this last political phase -since in July lost the confidence of Parliament – and is in favor of an orderly transition. Whoever succeeds him in office.
Meloni's main opponent, former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, Secretary General of the Democratic Party, draws a "nightmare scenario" for the Social Democrats in which the right could have the strength to reform the Constitution alone. "We have seventeen days to change the history of our country and prevent the alarm over Italian democracy from being real," he assured his candidates. The reality is that, with the current electoral law that rewards coalitions, "43% of the votes can be transformed into 70% of parliamentary representation." That is why he asks his people to make an effort, to do everything possible, “from house to house, from street to street, from square to square”, to overcome and complicate life as much as they can for Meloni in the next legislature. Only if the PD remained as the first party above the Brothers of Italy would the defeat of the left – just as the right-wing coalition would add – be less bitter.
