The climate crisis is impacting “the health and survival of people around the world”; and, furthermore, projections indicate that these risks “could worsen abruptly” if inaction continues in the future. This is indicated by the new report Countdown on Health and Climate Change, prepared by the scientific journal The Lancet. The report especially warns about the increase in human diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. The world will likely triple heat-related deaths by mid-century.
Projections on the health impact of a planet that is on track to warm by more than 2°C point to “a dangerous future”, as the “mitigation efforts seen so far have been woefully inadequate to safeguard people's health and safety.” ” says Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London.
Changing weather patterns are accelerating the transmission of deadly infectious diseases, the report emphasizes. This is the case, for example, of the West Nile virus, which circulates among birds and can be transmitted to humans by mosquitoes.
The report indicates that the reproduction potential in the period 2013–2022 was 4.4% higher than between 1951–1960
Similarly, the average transmission of dengue by the yellow fever mosquito (Ae aegypti) and the tiger mosquito (Ae albopictus) increased by 28.6% and 27.7%, respectively.
For its part, the potential for transmission of chikungunya by the tiger mosquito increased by 27.7% while that of Zika by this same mosquito increased by 31.9%. The length of the broadcast season has increased in both cases between 13.4% and 14.9%
The report highlights the increase in land with environmental and climatic conditions for the transmission of malaria through the Anopheles mosquito and the Plasmodium parasite.
Likewise, rising ocean temperatures have caused the areas of the planet's coasts that are conducive to the spread of Vibrio bacteria to increase by 329 km each year since 1982. Vibrio can cause illness and even death in humans.
Therefore, a record number of 1.4 billion people are at risk of diarrhea, severe wound infections and sepsis.
This situation particularly threatens Europe, where the coastal area conducive to the development of Vibrio has increased by 142 km per year.
The new report from The Lancet highlights that people experience an average of 86 days of potentially fatal extreme temperatures per year, which constitute a threat to their health (data from the period 2018-2022).
The result is that adults over 65 years of age as well as children over one year old are now exposed to at least twice as many days under heat waves compared to the period 1986-2005. It must be taken into account that for these sectors, extreme heat can be particularly life threatening,
Specifically, heat-related mortality in people over 65 years of age increased by 85% between 2013 and 2022, compared to the period 1991-2000. This number is well above the 38% increase that would be expected if there were no temperature change (i.e., taking into account only demographic changes).
The increasingly destructive nature of extreme climate events puts water security and food production at risk, meaning that millions of people are exposed to malnutrition.
The land areas affected by extreme droughts increased from 18% in the period 1951-60 to 47% between 2013 and 2022.
More frequent heat waves and droughts were associated with 127 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 122 countries in 2021, compared to annually between 1981 and 2010.
Another notable fact is that the total value of economic losses associated with extreme climate events increased by 23% between 2010-2014 and 2018-2022. In 2022 alone, climate-related extreme events caused losses worth $264 billion.
For its part, heat exposure caused potential global income losses of $863 billion.
Health systems are the first line of defense to protect people from the increasing dangers associated with climate change. However, even the current warming of 1.14°C (decade average) puts severe pressure on healthcare systems.
The result is that 27% of the cities surveyed (141 of 525) expressed concern about their health systems being overwhelmed by the effects of climate change.
For the first time, this year's report presents a disturbing picture of what our future could look like if the planet continues to warm. The latest projections developed point to the increasing risks to people's health if the 1.5 °C objective is not achieved.
With this perspective, it is projected that the annual mortality associated with extreme temperatures will increase 370% by mid-century.
Extreme temperatures will increase the loss of potential working hours by 50% globally.
Increased frequency of heat waves could result in an estimated 525 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity by 2041-2060, exacerbating the risk of global malnutrition.
“In the face of such alarming projections, adaptation efforts alone cannot keep pace with the effects of climate change, and the associated costs are accelerating to the point of becoming insurmountable,” says Professor Stella Hartinger, director of the regional center for South America from The Lancet Countdown.
“We have to take a step further to not only treat the effects of climate change on health, and focus on primary prevention. The underlying causes of climate change must be addressed with strategies to rapidly accelerate mitigation in all sectors, to ensure that the magnitude of health hazards does not exceed the adaptive capacity of health systems," adds this specialist. she, "if governments do not begin, once and for all, to act accordingly in the face of these warnings, the situation will get much worse"
The report warns that the policies that have been implemented to date are laying the foundation for warming of almost 3 ° C. However, the data shows a world that is moving in the wrong direction. Energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0.9% to reach a record 36.8 Gt in 2022. Only 9.5% of the world's electricity comes from modern renewable energy (mainly solar and wind).
Collectively, the world's 20 oil and gas giants have increased their forecasts for fossil fuel production this year compared to last year.
This will mean that greenhouse gas emissions will exceed levels compatible with a 1.5°C temperature increase by 173% in 2040 (compared to the 112% increase anticipated in their 2022 strategies), therefore that they would be even further away from meeting their Paris Agreement commitments.
Of concern is the fact that fossil fuel companies have allocated only 4% of their capital investments in renewable energy in 2022.
Meanwhile, the expansion of oil and gas extractive activities has been supported through public and private financial funds.
The financial sector also contributes to health threats, as total loans from private banks to the fossil fuel industry reached 572 billion in the period 2017-2021.
Between 2017 and 2021, the top 40 banks that lend to the fossil fuel sector collectively invested $489 billion annually in fossil fuels (on average), and 52% increased their lending between 2010 and 2016.
At the same time, in 2020, 78% of the countries assessed, responsible for 93% of all global CO2 emissions, were still providing direct net subsidies to fossil fuels totaling $305,000, making it even more difficult the elimination of fossil fuels.
“At a time when the world is on the brink of irreversible damage, the fact that governments and companies continue to invest shamelessly in the oil and gas industry means they are ensuring that the 1.5°C global warming target is met. Paris Agreement is not fulfilled. This would put the health of millions of people at risk,” says Professor Paul Ekins, head of the Lancet Countdown working group on economics and finance. Paul Ekins highlights that all this aid must be urgently redirected to promote clean renewable energy, as well as activities that promote public health and resilience.
Despite the magnitude of the current challenges, the report points to the health benefits that will accrue from the transition to a zero-carbon future.
Thus, improving air quality could prevent many of the 1.9 million annual deaths that result directly from exposure to polluted outdoor air associated with fossil fuels, and millions more deaths from polluted indoor air.
Changing the way we get around and offering active, public, electric and accessible alternatives could prevent many of the 460,000 annual deaths caused by particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions associated with the transportation industry. This change would also promote people's health by promoting physical activity.
Likewise, "accelerating the transition to healthier, low-carbon diets would not only prevent up to 12 million deaths related to dietary habits annually, but would also reduce agricultural sector emissions from greenhouse gases by 57%." the production of red meat and milk".
All of these achievements would also contribute to healthier populations, reduce pressure on healthcare systems, minimize emissions from the healthcare industry, and promote health equity.
Although urgent action is required, there are some encouraging signs of progress. The report notes at this point that deaths associated with air pollution derived from fossil fuels have decreased by almost 17% since 2005, with 80% of this decrease being the result of efforts to reduce pollution derived from the burning of coal.
At the same time, global investment in clean energy grew by 15% in 2022, reaching $1.6 trillion and surpassing investment in fossil fuels by 61%. Loans to clean energy reached $498 billion in 2021 and are about to catch up with fossil fuels. The result: Renewables accounted for 90% of the growth in electricity capacity in 2022, and the employment rate in the renewable energy sector broke an all-time record with 12.7 million employees in 2021.
In response to the publication of the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres (who was not involved in writing the report) said: “We can already see that a human catastrophe is unfolding with the danger it poses to health. and the livelihoods of billions of people around the world from unprecedented heat, crop-ruining droughts, rising levels of hunger, increasing numbers of infectious disease outbreaks, and deadly storms and floods. ”.
