In the Department of Homeland Security, the body that advises the Presidency of the Government on security matters, there is "enormous concern" about the instability in the southern neighborhood. The reports that reach Moncloa, prepared with prior information from ministries such as the Foreign, Interior and Defense ministries, have been warning for some time about how the Sahel area is becoming a "nest of jihadists" that can pose a "very high threat". for Spanish, European and transatlantic security.
Sources from the Department of Homeland Security warn of the risk of European military withdrawals in countries of central Africa where political and institutional instability is being taken advantage of by terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State to wage a fratricidal war for control of the area. At the same time that, due to the seriousness of the events, NATO is concentrating its efforts on strengthening the eastern flank, where an unprecedented number of forces and resources have been deployed in the last year following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Hence, the Government fears that a look only focused on the east will forget the south.
At the last NATO summit, held last June in Madrid, the organization included for the first time in its history the threats on the southern flank under the pretext that it is becoming "fertile" ground for "the proliferation of groups armed forces, including terrorist organizations. But also due to "destabilizing interference" by "strategic competitors", reads the latest roadmap of the Atlantic Alliance, in clear reference to the growing Russian influence - either through its army or through the Wagner group of mercenaries. – in countries like Mali, a clear example of the growing instability of the Sahel states.
For this reason, the government –although for diplomatic reasons this is not explicitly stated– has not welcomed the withdrawal of French and German troops from Mali in the mission to combat terrorism. "It is leaving the way clear for Russia," explain sources from the Ministry of Defense, who say that leaving the African country without a European military presence after a decade of mission could turn Mali into Afghanistan II.
Spain continues to defend the need not to completely withdraw militarily from Mali, although the truth is that although 2022 began with around 500 uniformed personnel in the country, in May they were reduced to 350 and now the forecast is to reduce the detachment to around 160, The same sources point. In addition, the Spanish uniformed personnel will not carry out operational maneuvers, but advisory tasks. The ministry headed by Margarita Robles insists on a military presence in Mali "to support democracy and peace", despite the fact that the military junta in command of the country -after two coups d'état- does not offer security guarantees in the eyes of the European Union.
It is precisely the EU that is looking for a new operations center in the Sahel zone after the disappointment in Mali. All eyes are on Niger. The purpose is to send a new mission to the country that shares a border with Mali to advise its army on improving the fight against jihadism. Spain has not yet confirmed that it will join this future mission, but all the military sources consulted do not doubt that the armed forces will be present in Niger if the deployment of European troops finally materializes. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also redoubling efforts in diplomatic relations with Niger.
In Mauritania, which also shares a huge border with Mali, Spain is also "exploring new military cooperation initiatives", as confirmed by military sources. There is currently no permanent contingent in the area, despite the fact that since 2016 more than 400 Spanish soldiers have been deployed in a bilateral program of training activities in the field of cooperative security. A few months ago, the Chief of the Defense Staff (Jemad), Admiral General Teodoro López Calderón, traveled to Nouakchott to explore this route. From Defense they assure that the sending of a contingent of such depth would, in any case, be under the umbrella of the European Union or NATO.
For its part, the Ministry of the Interior is also putting a large part of its efforts on the southern flank. Here –almost– everything relies on Morocco, also threatened by the pressure of the Sahel. After the Copernican turn that the Government gave on the Sahara issue to please the neighboring country after months of disagreement, police cooperation between the two countries is being greatly strengthened in the fight against terrorism and criminal organizations that traffic in immigrants. It will be these issues that the ministry led by Fernando Grande-Marlaska puts on the table as a priority during the Spanish presidency of the European Union to try to achieve a greater involvement of the European partners in the security of the southern flank, which involves having Morocco "as a priority partner".
