Less than a month before the primaries of the Venezuelan opposition, which on October 22 will elect its presidential card for the 2024 elections, María Corina Machado is emerging as the winner according to all the polls – very different from each other – followed by a long distance from Henrique Capriles, who was a candidate twice, against Hugo Chávez (2012) and against Nicolás Maduro (2013). However, both Machado and Capriles are disqualified by the regime, which paints a scenario without many prospects for change after almost a quarter of a century of Chavismo.
55 years old, Machado represents the most conservative and intransigent sector of the opposition, despite the fact that he decided to remain in Venezuela – like Capriles –, while the majority of anti-Chavista leaders went into exile in Madrid, Miami or Bogotá.
There are a dozen candidates in the primaries, which shows an opposition as fractured as ever, although it aspires to unite around the winning candidacy – or whoever ends up taking its place – to defeat Maduro.
Meanwhile, Chavismo begins to poke its nose into the opposition's definition. The regime's number two, Diosdado Cabello, said on Monday that it is "impossible" for the primaries to be held without the support of the institutional National Electoral Council (CNE). The National Primary Commission – set up by the opposition to organize the elections – requested help from the CNE in June, which did not respond affirmatively until last Friday, which now forces anti-Chavismo to hastily negotiate the terms of that aid.
In this context, discreet contacts continue between Chavismo and the US – also with Norway, Colombia and the EU – to ensure that the 2024 presidential elections are held with democratic guarantees, after the war in Ukraine led to a rapprochement of the White House to the government of Venezuela, which controls the largest oil reserves in the world.
