There are two key figures in Sunday's elections in Galicia: 38 and 45. The absolute majority in the Galician Parliament is reached from 38 deputies. For the party that aspires to an absolute majority alone, the critical threshold is 45% of the votes. Depending on the degree of concentration or dispersion of the other candidates, 45% may be more than enough, or insufficient.
Manuel Fraga Iribarne managed to be elected president of the Xunta for the first time after obtaining 44.2% in the regional elections of 1989. In those elections the opposition was very fragmented: PSOE, Galician Nationalist Bloc, Galician Socialist Party-Galega Left, Galician Coalition, Democratic and Social Center and Left United.
After 15 years of uninterrupted government, an octogenarian Fraga lost the presidency of the Xunta in 2005 with 45.8% due to a greater concentration of the vote in two opposition parties. PSOE and BNG managed to add 38 seats and the socialist Emilio Pérez Touriño won the presidency. The foreign vote was not decisive in those elections, but in Argentina, the administration of Peronist President Néstor Kirchner mobilized in favor of the PSOE candidacy. The Argentine census today is 166,289 voters, especially concentrated in the province of Buenos Aires.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo recovered Galicia for the Popular Party in 2009 with 46.6%, which gave him 38 seats. The economic crisis had already begun and the economist Pérez Touriño ignored the then organizational secretary of the PSOE, José Blanco, who advised him to bring forward the elections before the tide of social unrest rose. Feijóo's campaign began with a bang, accusing Pérez Touriño of having changed his official car while the Galicians were beginning to notice the effects of the crisis. The PP's vigorous offensive in 2009, the return to power campaign, concluded with a photo of the Nationalist Bloc candidate, Anxo Quintana, aboard the yacht of the builder Jacinto Rey. (Quintana was wearing a t-shirt). As we see, photos of politicians on board a yacht are recurring material in Galicia.
Key figures: 38 and 45. Since last Monday, electoral polls cannot be published, so we must be cautious. It would not be an exaggeration to assume that the PP is today at the 45% threshold, one step higher, one step less, depending on the day, with a rising BNG that could exceed 30%. The PSOE, in third position, could be giving up a significant amount of votes to the transversal candidacy of Ana Pontón, who would also pass the vacuum in Sumar.
The magnificent carnivals of Ourense, in which Mayor Gonzalo Pérez Jácome moves like a fish in water, could give a seat to the Democracia Ourensana candidacy. Ourense populism aspires to have the key to Santiago. We could be in a scenario of very tight balances.
In this context, Isabel Díaz Ayuso showed up yesterday in Galicia cheering for Javier Milei. As we said, voters in Argentina are especially concentrated in the province of Buenos Aires, which is still governed by the Peronists. (The PSOE is actively campaigning in Buenos Aires).
Núñez Feijóo has not mentioned Milei for weeks, whom he congratulated in November. The framework for him is another: the pardon.
