Without trying to detract from the honorable result achieved by former ambassador Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary elections, it seems evident that Donald Trump has all the numbers to win the Republican nomination for president for the third consecutive time. A victory for Haley in the primaries of the state of which she was governor, South Carolina, would extend her campaign by a few days, but everything indicates that the so-called Super Tuesday, the set of primary elections and caucuses that will be held on March 5, will give the swarthy former president the opportunity to once again challenge the current incumbent, Joe Biden, for the White House.
No surprises are expected on the Democratic side either. His advanced age suggested in 2020 that Biden would be a one-term president, but he has finally embraced the tradition of the last half century by which every president aspires to the reelection to which he is constitutionally entitled. You have to go back to the turbulent month of March 1968, in the middle of the Vietnam War, to find a president, Lyndon Johnson, who refused to run again. The following presidents have all tried it, some successfully (Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George Bush Jr., Barack Obama) and others not (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George Bush Sr., and Donald Trump).
In any case, the experience of this call is totally atypical, with a former president who won the 2016 elections in a good democratic fight, despite the fact that his rival took three million popular votes from him, and who irrevocably lost the 2020 elections, Despite which – and here comes the anomaly – he not only refused to admit his defeat, but also persuaded part of his compatriots, against all proof or evidence, that those elections had been fraudulent.
Meanwhile, before, during and after his presidential term, Trump has accumulated a certainly impressive alleged criminal record, with almost a hundred indictments and increasingly frequent visits to the courts of law. This is also unprecedented; What to his detractors is proof that we are dealing with a serial criminal, to his supporters it seems to demonstrate that he is a victim of the system. Until now, in fact, it has seemed that each Trump court appearance increased his popularity in opinion polls and increased the funds to finance his campaign.
The question is whether this will continue to be the case throughout the nine endless months that remain until the presidential elections, scheduled for November 5. President Biden's agenda will be dominated by certainly worrying events, such as, among many others, the ongoing international conflicts and those that may arise, the impact of the climate emergency, the challenge and eventual regulation of artificial intelligence, the evolution of unemployment , inflation and interest rates or citizen insecurity, all against the background of his advanced age and the incessant struggle with Congress, which in an election year can easily lead to paralysis of government action.
But what can we say about Trump's criminal agenda? Accounting fraud, sexual abuse, defamation, bribery, abuse of power, obstruction of justice, violations of national security due to the misappropriation and illicit preservation of official documents, attacks against electoral regulations, insurrection and sedition by encouraging the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the list is endless. Although the New York tycoon is expected to appeal each and every one of the eventual convictions to the Supreme Court, the potential wear and tear seems evident. And, with the nomination assured, he will no longer be balanced by eventual electoral triumphs in a prematurely concluded primary campaign.
Of course, there are still undeniable sources of interest, such as the summer national conventions that will be held in Milwaukee (Republican) and Chicago (Democratic), who will be the vice presidential candidates – especially the one Trump chooses – and, of course, of course, the traditional televised head-to-head debates of the fall. But it seems to us that the process could be very long for the two candidates and for everyone.
