Iran's most publicized, if unprecedented, attack on Israel passed with little damage, but has materialized fears of a regional conflict, especially in the face of Israel's promise of another counterattack.
The political and military leaders of the Jewish State congratulated themselves for having intercepted “99%” of the more than 300 projectiles launched by Tehran, which defended its action as retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the embassy in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven members of the Revolutionary Guard.
According to army spokesman Daniel Hagari, 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles were shot down outside Israeli airspace, as were the “vast majority” of the 120 ballistic missiles. At the same time, other air assaults initiated by pro-Iran militias in Iraq, by Hezbollah in Lebanon and by the Houthi rebels in Yemen were repelled.
For this task, Israel had the support of combat aircraft from the United States, the United Kingdom and, notably, Jordan, an Arab nation with which it has had a peace treaty since 1994, which is highly critical of the Israeli invasion of Gaza.
The missiles that penetrated the Israeli defenses caused “minor damage” to the infrastructure of the Nevatim air base, which also did not interrupt its operation. It is a crucial facility for the Israeli bombings in Gaza, which did not even stop amid the Iranian attack. Additionally, a seven-year-old girl from a Bedouin community in southern Israel was injured by shrapnel from a downed missile that landed on her home while she was sleeping. The minor has undergone surgery for a severe injury to her head.
Although the impact was minimal, for the Israelis it was a long night, which began with the announcement of various measures - such as the restriction of meetings and the closure of airspace - and peaked shortly before two in the morning, when the sirens sounded in various areas of the territory.
At that time, the interceptions of Iranian missiles were felt, especially in Jerusalem, and some recorded in photos and videos the projectiles that crossed the skies above iconic buildings such as the Israeli Parliament or the Al-Aqsa mosque.
In Petah Tikva, ten kilometers from Tel Aviv, there were no alerts, but Hispanic-Mexican Sammy Levi admits that “it did scare me when they said ballistic missiles were coming.” “We are already used to this, we already know the civil protection instructions, we know what to do,” he explains to La Vanguardia. But this was different, because we didn't know how much time we would have or what we should do, because no one really knows what drones are.”
This surgeon who works at the Barzilai hospital in Ashkelon, four kilometers from the strip, could not rest because “they called me all the time from the hospitals with alert states” and, “as they say in Israel, we sleep with our boots on.” ”. “My family slept well, no one heard anything,” he continues. I heard the Air Force planes very loudly and they did wake me up, but there were no alarms.”
On Sunday morning, after the authorities indicated that it was no longer necessary to be near the shelters and flights were reinstated, the streets showed relative normality, although with an air of strangeness. The beginning of the work week was marked by the cancellation of classes at all educational levels and the uncertainty of whether there will be another Israeli retaliation.
Iran's display of power with its unprecedented direct attack on Israel, analysts agree, sought to reduce domestic pressures (as evidenced by the live broadcast on state television about the offensive and the demonstrations of support in the streets), strengthen its legitimacy with his followers and draw a line at deterrence with Israel.
However, it did so in a calibrated manner against military targets to, a priori, reduce the prospects of Israeli retaliation. Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian indicated that the United States was informed of a “limited” campaign and that neighbors received notice 72 hours before the attacks.
For Tehran, the matter is settled, although its army chief, Mohammad Bagheri, warns that “our response will be much greater if Israel retaliates against Iran” and that US bases could be attacked if Washington backs an Israeli counterattack.
“I don't think Israel sees it that way,” warns Sima Shine, a former Mossad officer and head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. What is in question is the scope of the response. Although the most radical wing of the Government has already expressed itself in favor of a “crushing attack” against Tehran, the Minister of the War Cabinet, Benny Gantz, has warned that the Israeli retaliation will be “in whatever form and at whatever time.” right for us” and that Israel must “build a regional coalition” to contain Iran.
For his part, Biden congratulated the premier for the “remarkable defense capacity,” which sends “a clear message to its enemies that they cannot threaten Israel's security.” What was not said in the White House statement is that the president, according to US media, would have made it clear to Netanyahu that Washington will not support a direct assault on Iranian soil.
Thus, while the United States leads Western condemnation of Iranian retaliation and leads the global call to avoid a broad escalation in the Middle East, Shine adds that “Israel will hesitate to make [a counterattack] without Washington's approval.”
Netanyahu's government could take advantage of the breath of fresh air from the Iranian threat, which has displaced international criticism of its destruction of Gaza, with more than 33,000 Palestinians killed by its attacks, overshadowed anti-government protests and demands for a agreement with Hamas for the release of hostages, and has renewed the prospects for an international anti-Iran alliance so desired by Israel.
The decision on how to respond to Iran's attack falls to the triumvirate that makes up Benny Gantz, along with Prime Minister Beniamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. And although an immediate response was evaluated in the heat of the Iranian attack, the New York Times reported that President Joe Biden interceded to stop that possibility in his phone call with Netanyahu.
Gallant has regularly expressed himself in close harmony with Netanyahu. He was the first to state, mid-afternoon yesterday, that “this is not over.”
Gantz, for his part, seems to keep more distance from Netanyahu, if only for electoral reasons. He has also traveled abroad on different occasions to establish his own profile. However, he shares Netanyahu's essential vision for the future of Israel and the Palestinians.
