In the months since Hamas committed the worst atrocity against Jews since the Holocaust, the conflict has spread across the Middle East. In total, ten countries are now involved in the fighting. In Gaza, Israeli soldiers and Hamas continue to kill each other, while two million people face famine. Across the border with Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel are waging a low-intensity war. Yemen's Houthis attack merchant ships, exacerbating an economic crisis in Egypt and provoking retaliation from the United States and Britain. The death of three soldiers in Jordan on January 28 as a result of an attack by Iraqi militias could trigger a confrontation between the United States and Iran, which promotes the Axis of Resistance.
It is easy to fall into despair, but there is a way out. Amid intense diplomatic activity led by the United States and Saudi Arabia, a transformative agreement is taking shape. Its novelty, as we have learned, consists of taking advantage of a proposal to release hostages to recompose Israeli policy; take advantage of this recomposition to open a path towards a Palestinian State; and then leverage Israel's commitment to that goal as a basis for reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia in which mutual recognition is backed by American security guarantees. According to official sources, the chances of a deal on the hostages may be 50% and, once that is achieved, the chances of a Saudi-Israeli deal could also be 50%. Success is far from guaranteed, of course; but it promises a new economic and security architecture in the Middle East.
One reason for hope is that Israel may want to pause the campaign. Many Israelis are eager to get the hostages home, and the fighting is not going to free them. Israel has made progress on the path to its military objectives. Hamas has lost half its territory, half its fighters (according to the Israeli military), possibly a third of its tunnels, and many of its leaders (although not the highest-ranking ones). From now on, Israel faces diminishing returns, in addition to an increasing number of civilian casualties in Gaza and the corresponding damage to its reputation.
Another reason for hope is that the United States, Egypt, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia also have good reasons to collaborate. As the war has spread, all of these countries have seen the true extent of Iran's malign influence. Through regional proxies armed with drones and missiles, Iran seeks to sow regional chaos while trying to avoid a direct war with Israel or the United States. Everyone wants to prevent Iran's scavenger regime from establishing itself as a regional power, capable of threatening Israel and the Gulf and putting global trade in check. That would make a mockery of American deterrence. No one wants to see a destructive war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran. Peace is the only way out.
The plan begins with a humanitarian pause achieved thanks to the mediation of the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The first truce, in November, only lasted seven days; This could last a month or two and release in stages many or all of the hundred or so Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. This could recompose Israeli politics and help Israeli public opinion look beyond the horror of October 7. The United States and Saudi Arabia are calling on Israel to commit to a Palestinian state and to demonstrate its resolve, for example by halting settlements in the West Bank.
The next step, according to our research, goes through Mohamed bin Salmán, the autocratic but modernizing leader of Saudi Arabia. Before October 7 he was preparing an agreement that would recognize Israel in exchange for a Saudi-American defense treaty. In fact, a likely motive for the Hamas attack was to sabotage those plans. Against all odds, Saudi Arabia continues to fight for that vision. An agreement would mark the largest Arab commitment to peace in three decades. It would also bind Israel and offer the Palestinians a concrete commitment to statehood. In the long run, all of this could evolve into a US-led regional alliance to contain Iran.
Two major obstacles stand in the way: Beniamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, and Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas in Gaza and terrorist architect of October 7. Netanyahu has never believed in a Palestinian state. He has acquiesced to the violent goals of extremist settlers. However, polls indicate that only 15% of Israelis believe he should remain in power after the war. A prolonged ceasefire and the release of hostages may create an opportunity for rivals. Benny Gantz, for example, could honorably leave the war cabinet. Israel's next leader may be someone capable of telling his people that the best basis for security is not endless war, but strong alliances and a path to peace.
President Joe Biden should accelerate that transition by speaking over Netanyahu, just as Netanyahu has sometimes spoken over American presidents. He should open an embassy in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, modeled on the one Donald Trump opened for Israel. He should also explain how the United States envisions the terms of a Palestinian state and be willing to recognize it should Israel stubbornly refuse to compromise.
And the other obstacle, Sinwar? He is believed to be hiding underground in southern Gaza, under the feet of Israeli soldiers. Despite having unleashed a catastrophe on Gaza, he will claim a great victory for the mere fact of surviving. It is possible that the armed and more fanatical wing of Hamas will become the dominant force in Gaza after a ceasefire and demand broader Palestinian leadership. Encouraged by Iran, Sinwar could well attack Israel, provoke retaliation and thus sabotage any progress towards peace.
To deter such attacks and continue dismantling tunnels, Israel will maintain a military presence in Gaza for some time. That fact will disappoint those who want an immediate withdrawal. However, Israel must be clear that it will withdraw, if its security is guaranteed and Hamas remains out of power. Sinwar may be asked to leave Gaza for a country like Qatar, just as Yasser Arafat was asked when he left Lebanon for Tunisia. Sinwar is likely to insist on staying. This would confirm the value of international peacekeeping forces, including those from Arab States, tasked with providing security in Gaza and thereby creating the space necessary for the emergence of a moderate government.
For all of this to be possible, a boost is urgently needed. The more Israel reins in its West Bank settlers and the more credible its commitment to a Palestinian state, the more room for maneuver it will have to contain what remains of Hamas fighters. The more willing Arab states are to spend money and provide security, the more confidence ordinary Israelis and Palestinians will have in change. And the more the United States puts pressure on all parties, the better. Peace and stability in the Middle East will always be elusive. However, the world must seize the current opportunity, because the pull toward war is relentless.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
