The plot twists are a central device of the television series that American politics has become; even more so, in an election year, which is usually a long-distance race. But only a major surprise could prevent the plot of the previous season from being repeated: a dispute between Joe Biden and Donald Trump to reach the White House. Neither the fatigue of moderate Republicans, nor the 91 criminal charges brought in four judicial proceedings, nor the two impeachments, nor the civil trials for fraud, sexual abuse and defamation, seem to be compelling arguments against the main allegation of the Trump campaign. : that the elections were stolen from him, that he is the legitimate president and that an alleged deep state is conspiring to prevent his return.
If the ultra-conservative achieves tonight, when the New Hampshire primary polls open, an overwhelming result like the one he obtained in the Iowa caucuses (51%), he will pave his way to the Republican nomination. After the withdrawal of Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis from the race, in light of their lack of support, there is only one alternative to their unquestionable dominance over the party: Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, who in 2017 She served in his administration as ambassador to the UN.
Haley has tonight, in the second election of the year, her great opportunity to hit the table and claim to be the useful vote to expel Trump. In a less conservative state than Iowa, and with the support of popular Governor Chris Sununu, her fate will depend on her ability to attract the vote of independents and moderate Republicans. But, even though in one month she has doubled her position in the polls (from 17 to 34%), she is still 18 points apart from the former president in the northern state. That, without counting the 8% that DeSantis gave in the same survey, the last one before the primaries, published on Sunday by the Washington Post. In announcing her abandonment, the governor of Florida, like Ramaswamy, asked for a vote for the New York tycoon.
But Haley is confident in her options: the electoral race "has always been a marathon, never a sprint," she assured the press this Tuesday, and she has been predicting her withdrawal for days if a resounding defeat occurs today. "The political class and the media want to crown Trump. They say the race is over, after only 110,000 people have voted in the Iowa caucuses," his campaign denounced in a statement: "This doesn't work like that. "50% of Republican voters want an alternative to Trump. 75% of the country wants an option other than Trump or Biden," he recalled, "we are not going to move from here."
While the Republican voter base remains aligned with Trump, Haley has focused her campaign on the most moderate and those registered as independents, who can also vote in these primaries and make up 40% of the electorate. Although her profile is equally conservative – she promises massive tax cuts, is against Obamacare, hostile to trans people and the right to abortion, and has positioned herself in favor of "deporting" immigrants – she represents a more traditional position in the Republican Party. Especially in terms of foreign policy: he distances himself from Trump's isolationism and believes in US leadership in the world, a fact that is reflected in his support for additional aid to Ukraine and its admission to NATO, compared to to the magnate's opposition.
Haley, who turned 52 on Saturday, presents herself as the bearer of "generational change" in the party and American politics: "The majority of Americans do not want to have to choose between two octogenarians," she said in a speech at Bretton Woods. (New Hampshire), ensuring that the lucidity of the former president (77 years old) and Biden (81 years old) are “in decline.” Haley is also the only Republican woman candidate to lead this country governed by men: all the presidents have been and 72% of the congressmen, 77% of the governors and six of the nine judges of the Supreme Court are.
Trump closed his campaign on Monday with an hour-long speech in Laconia, New Hampshire, accompanied by three of the candidates withdrawn from the race: Senator Tim Scott, North Dakota Governor David Burgum and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. With a victorious tone, accompanied by ridicule and belittling of Haley, he assured that "every day, the Republican Party is more united" around him. "We started against 13 and now we only have two left: one will probably retire tomorrow, and the other will leave in November," he ventured, also claiming to be a winner in the general election against Biden.
He ended his rally, as is customary, to the sound of the song Justice for all, a song associated with the extremist QAnon movement in defense of those accused of the assault on the Capitol. "Free the January 6th," someone from the audience shouted, to which Trump responded, "We will," and referred to those detained for trying to prevent the transfer of power to Biden in 2021 as "hostages." "Twelve years of Trump," was heard at another time, and the magnate joked: "Don't say it too loud... You know they love to call me a fascist."
In New Hampshire, only 22 of the total of 2,429 delegates will be distributed that will elect the Republican candidate for the White House in July, in Milwaukee (Wisconsin). They will join the 40 appointed last week by the Iowa caucuses. Americans For Prosperity Action, the political arm of billionaire Charles Koch – one of Haley's main donors – anticipates a high turnout, despite the fact that the state will vote with temperatures below zero. Specifically, it is expected that a record number of 330,000 people will go out to vote, 45,000 more than in the last competitive primaries, in 2016.
Democrats are also voting this Tuesday in New Hampshire, but the name of their clear favorite, Biden, will not be on the ballots. The Democratic National Committee decided in February, against a tradition dating back to 1920, that the northern state would not be the first to hold primaries: its official calendar begins in South Carolina on February 3. However, New Hampshire Democrats have opposed the change, in accordance with state law, and although Biden does not recognize the vote, anyone who wants to vote for him must write his name by hand on the ballot.
