As in previous crises in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Gaza, with ramifications in Lebanon, Syria and the Red Sea, is having enormous political, economic and social repercussions. Also in international supply chains, which have suffered disruptions of all kinds in the last five years and which are one of the main causes that have driven the growing political and economic tensions between China and the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe.
In recent weeks, following attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on ships sailing through the Red Sea, some shipowners have begun diverting merchant ships, especially small container ships, towards the Cape of Good Hope route. So far, the ships attacked and hit by the fire fired from Yemen have suffered only minor damage.
The ships thus avoid the dangerous route through the Red Sea and, in particular, the strategic and narrow Bab el Mandeb pass, which separates the coasts of Djibouti and Yemen. At the moment it is a residual movement, but it could increase if the terrible conflict in Gaza continues to spread throughout the region.
This is not the first time that some shipowners have used the Cape of Good Hope route to avoid passage through the Red Sea and the straits of Bab el Mandeb and Suez. Something similar happened on at least four occasions during this 21st century: during the attacks by Somali pirates at the beginning of the century immortalized by Tom Hanks in the film Captain Philips; in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, when many ships used the route on their return trips to Asia from Europe to avoid the large Suez toll; with the blockage of the canal by the Evergiven ship in March 2021; in periods of low demand for maritime transport, such as during confinements due to the covid pandemic.
Previously, during the second half of the 20th century, the Cape of Good Hope route was widely recovered precisely during the wars in the Middle East, especially following the Six Days and Yom Kippur Wars. The complete blockage of the Suez Canal forced all ships to be diverted around the South African cape for long periods. Then, however, global economic integration had not reached the current level, nor was Europe's dependence on Asian imports as high, so the passage through Suez and Bab el Mandeb was not of vital importance for the EU as it was assumed. is now.
The use of the Cape of Good Hope route implies a journey time between Asia and Europe substantially longer than that of the Suez Canal. Depending on the sailing speed of the ship and the origin and final destination, it may take up to 12 additional days. In certain cases, this may entail the need to deploy more ships to serve the same route or maritime rotation under conditions equivalent to those required if the traditional, shorter Suez Canal route is used.
