At campaign rallies, the candidate for the Argentine presidency, Javier Milei, took out a chainsaw shouting "tremble, the breed!", while promising to sever relations, "for left-handed reasons", with China and Brazil, his main partners. commercial of your country. Once president, Milei has softened his manner with Beijing. And those who tremble are rather millions of Argentine wage earners, who have already begun to take to the streets due to his regressive decree.
The Chinese media, which consider Milei a Trumpist character of the same character as former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, are not deceived. But the PRC's chainsaw, unlike yours, is not a scenic resource, if only because it buys more than three-quarters of Argentina's beef exports, 92% of its soybeans and much of its lithium. It is practically your last source of credit.
For now, China is content to observe, without turning it on. But according to the Buenos Aires press, there are already signs of a change in Beijing's attitude, in reaction to Javier Milei's first wild decisions. In this way, the vital currency exchange agreement signed with the previous Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa - in the end, losing rival against Milei - would be on hold. Specifically, a tranche equivalent to 6.5 billion dollars in yuan.
This agreement, with which Chinese President Xi Jinping left no doubt about who was his favorite in the elections, was also key for Argentina to be able to meet International Monetary Fund maturities and import from China. For this reason, in a section of the investiture, Argentine Foreign Minister Diana Mondino bit her tongue and pressed for an extension with the emissary from Beijing. Previously, Milei had thanked and replicated Xi Jinping's good wishes on Twitter.
A notable turnaround, three months after he responded to a question about China by saying he would not trade "with murderers." China does not forget, but it is pragmatic. It is not Milei's outbursts but what is beginning to take shape that will mark her reaction.
Thus, it is almost certain that Milei will not activate Argentina's entry into the BRICS in January, requested by his predecessor, Alberto Fernández, and accepted at the group's meeting last August in South Africa. A decision of political significance, but with economic logic, since three of the five BRICS (China, Brazil and India) are also among the top five markets for Argentine exports.
Also up in the air is Argentina's participation in the New Silk Roads, which it joined only last year. Contrary to what one might think, China is not a leading investor in Argentina - unlike Spain - but it does stand out as a source of financing. And among the projects that depend on it, stand out two hydroelectric plants in Patagonia, the fourth Argentine nuclear reactor and a photovoltaic park, as well as expansion plans for freight and passenger railways.
Of all this, what worries Washington the most is the Atucha III reactor, which this year has brought a large number of senior US officials to Buenos Aires. Including General Laura Richardson, commanding the Southern Command. During the same visit, Richardson expressed the importance that the US attaches "to the lithium triangle, which concentrates 60% of the world's lithium between Argentina, Bolivia and Chile."
Three Chinese groups are involved in the exploitation of Argentine lithium and one of them, precisely, is behind the decision of the Buenos Aires branch of the Bank of China to admit the first investment in yuan in Argentina, for current expenses of the company itself. The same bank had opened accounts in yuan the previous year.
A symptomatic picture that allowed the Peronist Sergio Massa, a few months ago, to joke about the "Argentine Republic" in the making. The Milei tornado represents a change in cycle, with strong gusts of wind blowing in favor of the United States and, possibly, its companies. Although the list of interested parties in its massive privatization plan could hold surprises.
This same Monday, the new Minister of Defense would have informed the head of the Air Force that the decision on the new Argentine combat aircraft - a US offer, an Indian one (Hal Tejas) and another Chinese one (Chengdu JF-17) - were competing, with advantage for the latter - would be taken. Milei would, without surprise, opt for the second-hand American F-16s offered at a bargain price by Denmark, with great incentives from Washington.
Beijing fears that after this setback there will be many more, since Milei has promised little less than to stop public works. A death sentence for projects that in most cases already had long delays, due to budgetary problems, since inflation returned to three figures under the previous government. While China thinks long term, in Argentina the price of a dish can change twice a day.
The fact is that Chinese financing allowed Buenos Aires in recent months to pay maturities to the IMF, reinforce the reserves of its Central Bank and pay for imports of Chinese manufactured products. It is one of the last external credit windows that have not been closed to Argentina. Until now.
In any case, as has been said, Xi congratulated Milei by letter on his election and he thanked him in a tweet with "sincere wishes for the well-being of the people of China." The People's Republic is observed and observes, because the words are carried away by the wind. The chainsaws are still up.
(Below the tweet from two months ago in which the previous Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, promised them very happy with the exchange agreement reached with Xi Jinping, now in dry dock)
