Chinese leaders are attempting to nearly square the circle in one of the biggest international crises since 1945. They are seeking a way out of the Ukraine war that is "balanced" and "lasting," and that respects "the security interests of each party." Beijing continues without condemning Russia for its aggression but sets limits to its war escalation and vows that it will not give it military aid. Chinese mediation not only pursues peace but also avoids an outcome that implies an all-too-obvious triumph for the United States, its great strategic rival.
Beijing has been the scene in recent days of a subtle diplomatic game with the simultaneous presence of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Both have pressured – and at the same time courted – the host, Xi Jinping, to use his good offices and influence with Moscow. "I know that you can be counted on to bring Russia back to reason and everyone to the negotiating table," Macron told the Chinese president in the introduction to his first meeting on Thursday.
The problem is what kind of "balanced" peace can Beijing's intervention achieve. For the Ukrainians – and for their European and North American allies – an arrangement that does not restore the full integrity and sovereignty of Kyiv within the framework of its internationally recognized borders in 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, is inadmissible. Macron reminded him, repeatedly, and insisted that there is an aggressor and a victim.
According to diplomatic sources, the French president expressly asked Xi that China not supply Russia with weapons, to which the Chinese president replied that Ukraine was not "his war."
Despite the rigid protocol and the caution with which the Chinese leadership expresses itself in these situations, Xi's message was quite explicit in various areas. In a statement that he read with Macron, without the possibility of questions from journalists, the Chinese leader warned Russia that it cannot use nuclear or biological weapons. Beijing is "hostile" to such possibilities. He also showed his opposition to the attack on civilians and urged that "collateral damage" be avoided for other countries, for example those eventually affected by the non-export of cereals. At the same time, Xi appealed to the international community and warned about the dangers of external actions – read the massive aid to Ukraine from NATO countries – that could generate "a deterioration of the crisis" or even a dynamic " out of control".
Before Macron, Xi used with skill, and always taking the water to his mill, arguments that Paris usually uses. The Chinese president recalled that France is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and that it has a tradition of "independence." Following this same reasoning, he advocated fighting together "the spirit of the cold war" and defended the advantages of a "multipolar world." Xi applauded the French and European desire for "strategic autonomy" because it avoids "submitting to the will of others" (an implicit allusion to the US ally).
As he has always done with other uncomfortable interlocutors, the French president dared to mention in public, without going into details, the issue of human rights in China. Macron stressed that it is important for France to raise it even if it does so in terms of "respectful demand" and with the premise that it is better "not to give each other lessons." The French leader was careful not to mention the issue of the Xinjiang Uyghurs, a situation that has received much media attention in the French press in recent years,
With his trip to China, Macron is once again at the center of the diplomatic effort to try to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. The French president had a very prominent role before the Russian invasion, on February 24 of last year, and immediately after. He was in Moscow and Kyiv days before the start of the war and made multiple calls to Putin and Zelensky, although his efforts were unsuccessful.
The visit has served to update the relationship between France and China, with the signing of various cooperation agreements in the design and construction of nuclear power plants, an offshore wind power project and others related to biofuels or construction of the subway in Chengdu city. There were succulent contracts for the Airbus aviation consortium and the cosmetics giant L'Oréal, as well as agreements to obtain visas for students and teachers. On a cultural level, the Palace of Versailles and the Forbidden City in Beijing announced an exhibition of pieces that will travel from France to the Chinese capital in 2024.
In a separate press conference, Von der Leyen, who also met Xi – first bilaterally and later trilaterally, with Macron – was tougher on China, stressing that if it finally provides Russia with weapons it will be violating international law and it will risk significantly “damaging” political and trade relations with the European Union. The head of the Community Executive welcomed that Xi indicated her willingness to call the Ukrainian president “when the conditions and the moment are opportune.
Von der Leyen called the situation in Xinjiang "particularly worrisome" and was skeptical that Beijing would agree to a compromise on Taiwan.
