On November 5, the most followed electoral process in the world will take place in the United States. They will be the first presidential elections since, on January 6, 2021, a mob of Donald Trump's supporters stormed the Capitol to try to prevent the election of Joe Biden. That event, inspired by the theory without evidence that electoral fraud had occurred, shook the democracy of the world's largest economy, which still suffers from its wounds.
The Iowa caucuses next Monday will begin a fundamental electoral race with two stages: a primary process to choose the candidate of each party and a presidential campaign, the final sprint, full of rallies, debates and surveys, prior to the November elections. That day, American citizens are also called to vote in legislative elections that will renew the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate (33 senators). Congress must certify the victory of the winner in the presidential election, who will take office on January 20 at the US Capitol in Washington.
The process to nominate each party's candidate begins with holding caucuses and primaries, the rules of which vary depending on each party and state. The objective is to elect the delegates, or representatives, who will be sent to the national convention of each party, where the nominee of each party will be decided. That is, it is an indirect election, since citizens do not directly elect the candidate for the White House.
Caucuses, like those that will be held this Monday in Iowa, are a set of citizen assemblies in which the citizens of each county or district meet at a certain time (usually in the late afternoon), debate and divide into groups. to vote for a candidate. In primaries, on the other hand, voters go to the polls throughout the day and cast their vote.
Each state has an assigned number of delegates for each party based on its population. How these delegates are distributed depends on the rules of each state and party. For example, Republicans in Iowa will distribute their 40 delegates proportionally to each candidate, while whoever wins in California will take all of the 169 allocated for that state. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, appoints delegates proportionally in almost all states, as long as the candidate reaches 15% of the votes.
After each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. territories have held their primary processes, delegates are sent to the national convention. These representatives are usually party activists and local political leaders, who will vote for their party's nominee. But there are also "superdelegates," who do not come from the primary process, but are instead automatically assigned by the party structure. The latter make up around 15% of delegates from the Democratic Party and 7% from the Republican Party.
The Republican Party will hold its convention in July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), where the total of 2,429 delegates will elect their candidate for the White House, who will need 1,215 votes to win the nomination. In the case of the Democratic Party, it will be held next August in Chicago (Illinois) and the winner will have to win the support of at least 1,966 of the party's 3,932 delegates. Candidates usually announce their vice president a few days before or after the national conventions.
If no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting, it is considered an "open convention," and new rounds will be held until there is a nominee. This is where the superdelegates come into play in the case of the Democratic Party, who will be able to freely choose their favorite candidate and tip the balance. On the other hand, in the Republican Party, superdelegates are required to vote for the candidate who has won their state and they also vote in the first round.
After each party has chosen its candidate for the White House, the final stretch begins. During the fall, the candidates will tour the different states to try to convince their voters. Especially, they will focus on the so-called swing states, or key states, which have a less clear dominance of each party, so the nominees will seek to convince the undecided to tilt the majority in their favor. In these elections, the swing states are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona.
In addition, between the months of September and October, the candidates of each party will face three face-to-face debates and there will be another between the possible vice presidents. Organized by the Presidential Debates Commission since 1988, they will be a litmus test for candidates to occupy the Oval Office.
The face to face between the candidates will be held on September 16 in San Marcos (Texas), on October 1 in Petersburg (Virginia) and on October 9 in Salt Lake City (Utah), while the vice president debate will be September 25 in Easton (Pennsylvania).
Every four years, on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, American citizens registered to vote are called to participate in elections in the country's fifty states and the District of Columbia. Although the electoral rules vary depending on each state, all of them will vote on November 5 for the president of the country and will renew the entire Lower House and a third of the Senate (33 senators).
However, as in the primaries, the election of the president is indirect: the results of the elections will decide the composition of 538 members of the Electoral College, who weeks later will vote for the president. These members are distributed proportionally based on the population of each state. The candidate who obtains the most votes in a state will take all the electors in dispute, with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, where they are allocated proportionally.
The candidate who receives at least 270 Electoral College votes will win the election. Then, there will be one last step before the inauguration: Congress must certify his vote. This step is usually a procedure, but it gained importance after the last elections, when on January 6, 2021, Trump followers attacked the Capitol (home of Congress) with the aim of paralyzing the procedure.
Since 1937, the inauguration of the new president takes place at noon on January 20, which is officially considered the first day of his term. The so-called Inauguration Day begins with a public ceremony in Congress, where the president-elect takes office, and ends at the White House, seat of the executive branch.
The US Constitution establishes as the only requirement of the ceremony the recitation of the presidential oath, which by tradition has almost always been administered by the chief justice of the Supreme Court. The event, which brings together the three federal powers – including the outgoing president – at the Capitol, is usually organized by the two political parties, as a representation of the peaceful transfer of power. However, in 2021, Trump skipped tradition and did not attend the ceremony, for the first time in history.
Broadcast on the Internet and on the main American television channels, at the end of the ceremony the new president will give his inaugural address. Then he will go in a pompous parade to the White House, along Pennsylvania Avenue, which connects the legislative and executive buildings.
