PSPV and PP, the two big parties that start as clear favorites to win or reconquer the Generalitat Valenciana in 2023, showed this weekend their commitment to fishing in the center voter. In their first major pre-campaign acts, both the popular Carlos Mazón -more proactive- and the socialist Ximo Puig -claiming his management of the last seven years at the head of the Consell- prioritized a message of moderation.
The victorious strategy of the Andalusian Moreno Bonilla has caught on among the leaders who see how, in a moment of crisis and uncertainty, the voter can opt for stability and for proposals that generate a certain peace of mind.
But how is that center voter that PP and PSPV dispute and that is presumed key to tip the electoral balance? It is common for voters to take refuge in the etiquette of the center in polls. However, a more detailed analysis of the latest published institutional studies -the pre- and post-election surveys of the CIS of 2019 and the barometers of the Generalitat Valenciana of 2021 and 2019- place the Valencian voter, in the four surveys, at 4.7 of the ideological scale that goes from 1 (left) to 10 (right).
The data crossing that facilitates the CIS allows to go down to more detail. 21.9% of those ranked 5 voted for the PSPV in 2019 in the same way as 72.4% of those ranked 4 on the ideological scale. Only 9.3% of those who are located in the center (5) voted for the PP, which obtains its fishing ground of votes further to the right.
And it is that the real battle for the center in 2019, Ximo Puig's PSPV had it with Ciudadanos. The candidacy led by Toni Cantó stepped on the heels of the Socialists among the center voter (5) and was the most voted brand of the center right (41% of the voters who placed 6 cast the orange ballot). Although it may seem like a very distant scenario, it must be remembered that Ciudadanos achieved 17.45% of the votes.
In fact, the same post-election survey of the autonomous communities of 2019 shows that the highest percentage of doubt among voters in that call was between the PSPV and Ciudadanos. 23% of the voters who hesitated did so between the two formations.
Now the big question - given that it does not seem that Cs is going to be reborn - is whether, as has happened in other parts of the Spanish geography, the PP will be able to occupy that space and snatch Puig's primacy among the center voter. It already seems that the Mazón team is working to achieve it and the PSPV to prevent it.
For this, the PP must moderate its speech. According to the 2021 barometer of the Valencian Government, the citizens of the Valencian Community placed the PP at 7.7 on the ideological scale and the PSPV at 3.6. The Socialists may be closer to 5, but it is still true that the popular ones are closer to Ciudadanos, which is located at 6.3. The battle will be bloody.
