The fifteenth summit of the Brics concluded on August 24, 2023 in South Africa. Despite the lack of spectacular progress on major diplomatic issues, there was significant success with the group's expansion to six new countries: Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran.
The initiative represents a real challenge for the Brics: excessive expansion carries the risk of diluting the identity of a group whose five initial members already have numerous differences. From an economic point of view, China somewhat overwhelms the other members due to its enormous weight on an international scale. The political systems are also very different. Furthermore, these states do not have the same diplomatic and strategic status: some are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, others are not; some have nuclear weapons, some don't. However, these differences should not be pushed too far.
The truth is that the Brics have accepted the challenge of expanding in a measured and contained way. The expansion highlights the attractiveness of the club and its ability to have a greater demographic weight. As Emmanuel Macron acknowledged in his speech delivered last Monday at the conference of French ambassadors: "I have not seen any country knock on the door of the G-20". The expanded Brics represent more than 46% of the world's population and 30% of world GDP.
The new members are also different in strategic, economic and political terms. The Brics has chosen to incorporate some countries from two different continents: Ethiopia and Argentina, a country linked to Brazil although there may be a change of majority. At first, Brazil and South Africa were reluctant to accept too large an expansion and only accepted one country from their continent so as not to lose their uniqueness. Argentina and Ethiopia (with a GDP of just 100 billion dollars, that is, 170 times less than China and 30 times less than India) have been considered more compatible than Nigeria and Mexico.
Iran and Saudi Arabia join at the same time as the United Arab Emirates. So it's not just about an oil and gas expansion, but also a financial one. Iran, though not a major economic player, is an oil-producing country with a tradition of evading US sanctions.
The next Brics summit will be held in Russia, which guarantees the participation of Vladimir Putin, who will not have to assess the risks of leaving Moscow for fear of possible internal political unrest or going abroad for fear of being charged before the Court International Criminal. He will be the first host of an enlarged Brics club, which will then become a G-11.
Finally, within that group, some members maintain good relations with the United States, but do not want to be locked into an exclusive bilateral relationship with Washington. From this perspective, the accession of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is a success for the Brics, capable of attracting those countries, but also for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, whose diplomacy is no longer exclusively aligned with US positions. They can fly on their own, though without breaking bridges with Washington. Some countries, like Iran, have terrible relations with Washington. Others want to maintain relations with the West, but widen their room for maneuver to achieve greater independence. Hence, the Brics are increasingly presenting themselves as the anti-G-7, or at least as an alternative to the G-7. In any case, the G-7 is a united bloc, while the enlarged Brics are more of a club.
In addition to providing themselves with a stronger demographic, diplomatic, and even economic base, the Brics wish to contribute to further de-dollarization of the international economy. The United Arab Emirates, whose demographic weight is relative considering its 9 million inhabitants, enjoy the advantage of unquestionable economic weight and are very active diplomatically. The country maintains very regular relations with New Delhi, which buys Emirati oil in rupees. Similarly, China buys oil from Saudi origin in its national currency. For this reason, more pressure and actions will be exerted so that energy transfers are carried out in currencies other than the dollar. The objective of the enlargement is a clear challenge to the monopoly of the dollar in the international economy.
Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
