Basque politics is entering a new phase marked by the arrival to the front row of new leaders, a tighter correlation of forces and, probably, more open alliance policies than in recent years. The exact date of the next Basque Parliament elections, between March and June, is not yet known, but four of the main five parties taking part have already revealed their cards and in all cases have opted for candidates, all men, who have never met. They had introduced Lehendakari. The perspective, furthermore, is that these are medium-term bets that look to the 2030 horizon.
For now, these are the bets of the main Basque groups: Imanol Pradales (PNV), 48 years old, doctor in Sociology and Political Science, university professor and in recent years responsible for Infrastructure in Bizkaia; Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu), 40 years old, doctor in Telecommunications Engineering and until now Program Director of the coalition; Eneko Andueza (PSE), 44 years old, graduated in Political Sciences and general secretary of his formation, and Javier de Andrés, 56 years old, graduated in Information Sciences and who, among other positions, held that of deputy general of Álava .
In the case of Podemos, the decision on the candidate is pending the negotiation with Sumar that is being addressed these days. The brand with which they will compete and the head of the list are key points of the conversations, and the purple formation is clear about its commitment: Miren Gorrotxategi, 56 years old and university professor of Constitutional Law.
If she runs, she will be the only female candidate, an issue that has generated a debate about it. The PNV has been questioned after a year ago, after an internal listening process, it recognized that citizens urged them to commit decisively to bringing more women to the front row. In the municipal and regional elections in May they made a move and today two of the three general deputies are women. Precisely, the jeltzales are justified by looking to May and allude to a gradual change. On the horizon is the probable goodbye of Andoni Ortuzar next summer, with Itxaso Atutxa, leader of the party in Bizkaia, as a possible replacement.
In the case of Bildu, the party points out that all the candidates for lehendakari it has presented since its emergence in 2011 have been women and also emphasizes that its candidate to preside over Navarra in May is a woman. She also emphasizes that they are feminists “as a movement” and that “if anything embodies” their candidate, it is that commitment. The socialists, meanwhile, have not been so singled out for this issue, since their previous candidate was Idoia Mendia. In any case, the photo attracts attention and we have to go back to 2012 to see elections with only one woman at the head of the list (it was Laura Mintegi, from Bildu).
In addition to the only candidate, if she finally competes, Gorrotxategi will also be the only one to repeat and, for the moment, she is also the best known, something that does not mean much either. According to the latest Basque Sociometer, only 37% of those surveyed know Gorrotxategi, and the level of knowledge of Andueza and De Andrés is even lower: 34% and 32%, respectively. The field work for this study was carried out at the end of November, so it did not ask about Pradales and Otxandiano, but it would not be surprising if the levels of knowledge were even lower.
That is to say, the candidates in the running are unknown, although the perception that they represent, especially in the case of PNV, Bildu and PSE, a generational change may work in their favor. They do not belong to a generation that entered politics between the transition and the first years of development of Basque self-government, but rather they directly grew up in the Euskadi of the Statute of Gernika and have developed most of their political career in a society that left behind the drama of terrorism.
Juanjo Álvarez is a professor of International Law at the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) and a fine analyst of Basque political reality. In his opinion, the electoral poster that is being configured leaves “a photo, in addition to being unpublished, very interesting”; in particular, with regard to the struggle between PNV and Bildu, the two parties with the most options and which today account for 69% of parliamentary representation.
In relation to Pradales, he considers that the PNV has chosen to take a “risk” and, at the same time, look for an “opportunity” that will relaunch it, since “the brand is affected”, while at the same time refuting the vision that Try a profile that is excessively similar to that of the current Lehendakari. “He is a clone of Urkullu,” Arnaldo Otegi even said. “In the personal dimension, where he has influence, they are different. In addition, there are aspects of the vision of politics that may differ, although the party sets the course. From Urkullu we know his humanist profile and his commitment to social, Christian democracy. It's what the game is. The PNV was never CiU, to understand us, and the proof is that Podemos and Sumar have been far from the social policies it has implemented, hand in hand with the PSE. From Pradales we know a more technocratic profile, who knows how to move in management and knows the socioeconomic fabric. It will be interesting to see what profile it shows in the coming months,” he indicates.
Regarding Otxandiano, he appreciates “a profile of a committed and prepared father that fits” from the point of view of the electoral interests of the coalition. “The technical and academic references that I have are very good, and it has earned prestige in the second line: in relations with business, social entities or with other parties, for its way of conducting relations and for its criteria and foundation” , he indicates.
The professor adds his role in focusing the political line of the coalition and the fact that it is not burdened by the backpack of violence. “It is not a minor issue, it is something very relevant. For many nationalist or nationalist voters it was a very heavy burden,” he says. In his opinion, this is a profile that can work for Bildu to attract “voters bordering the PNV.” “On this occasion he has not looked so much at the vote that may come from Podemos. In fact, in that space the transfer to the PSE may be easier. I think he has seen more possibilities of consolidating his growth by looking at the PNV and a fickle and perhaps disenchanted voter. I would also say that he has made the decision knowing that he is going to fight with Pradales. I'm not saying that he has done following, but rather a reading from political intelligence,” he points out.
The elections will have other focuses of interest. In the space on the left, Juanjo Álvarez considers that Andueza is going to decisively bet on trying to attract votes from the Podemos space and we will have to see to what extent the guy can endure the purple formation. The last Basque Sociometer gave them three seats, very far from the results they obtained in the years of their emergence. The PP, meanwhile, will bet on confronting the PNV, which in the last decade has gobbled up its electoral space.
Without knowing the date of the elections, Álvarez perceives “avidity” to attend the debate between candidates and see if they respond to expectations. “I have the feeling that people are going to influence the debate a lot,” he concludes.
