I was in Buenos Aires this week, among other things to participate in a reunion for my school year. Unlike the other littermates, I left school, and Argentina, at the age of nine, so no one recognized me and I didn't recognize anyone. Good for humility, and also good to see once again how quickly one makes friends with Argentinians, how surprisingly attractive the notion of living in their country again could suddenly be for me.
In the five days that I stayed there, I reconnected with old friends and participated in a forum on “leadership and integrity” with one of them, Hugo Porta, who was the Messi of Argentine rugby. I will have talked in total with more than 50 people. The constant theme was the presidential election that will take place in a week, or what many call “deciding between a cynic and a madman.” What I didn't expect was almost zero interest in what was happening in the rest of the world at a time when the rest of the world, or at least the northern hemisphere, is in perhaps the greatest danger since the missile crisis. in Cuba in the sixties.
It's not a criticism. All countries are absorbed. Look at Spain, where hysteria is growing among many over the amnesty that is proposed to be offered to politicians who sinned from childishness more than evil. But in Spain they do talk about the rest of the world, particularly today about the real evil in Palestine-Israel, and also about the war in Ukraine. People are beginning to be aware that dark clouds are approaching.
Summer is approaching in Buenos Aires and the sun is heating up. I say that suddenly it seems attractive to me to return to live there, where I spent ten years of my life, because I like the people, above all, but also because if wars spread through the North, few will be safer than the inhabitants of the North. south, south of the Global South. It is understandable that they do not consider the increasing possibilities of catastrophes in distant lands. Despite the chaos that is Argentine politics, there is peace.
What possible catastrophes am I referring to? For those who don't know, here it goes. At the end of the last century, global currents favored peacemakers and democrats. Today the winds are blowing in favor of the nationalists, the violent and the demagogues.
In the Middle East, a war with its epicenter in the Holy Land may spread to the entire region, with the possible participation not only of Iran but also of the United States, God save us. In that case, may God save Ukraine too, as the American military resources it depends on to resist the Russian invader will no longer be available. A victory for the Putin mafia would shake the other former Soviet colonies, such as Estonia or Lithuania, NATO members that NATO would be obliged to defend. Faced with such a scenario, China could take advantage of the opportunity to fulfill its old obsession of recovering the sovereign islands of Taiwan by military force.
All of these dangers would be multiplied tenfold if Donald Trump wins next year's presidential election. Today the polls indicate that President Joseph Biden will not be able to stop it.
I hope you understand a little better why Argentina suddenly seems like a haven of peace. Who knows if in the near future the diaspora of recent years will turn around and scores of Argentines will return from Spain, the United States and Australia to their beloved homeland? Or even if we will see a repetition of the migratory flow from Europe to Argentina that was seen after the world wars of the last century. Argentines have the habit of referring to their country as “the ass of the world” but, as I have commented to my friends in Buenos Aires these days, it is an ass that could once again be very appealing to a good part of humanity. Let us not forget that the main participants in the North's troubles – the United States, Russia, China and Israel – all have nuclear weapons.
For Argentina to become a true pole of attraction, it would be good, however, for it to solve some of its problems. Such as, for example, a justice system that lacks political independence, a calamitous economic management that has today led to inflation above 100% and an endemic spiral of corruption and government inefficiency. Few Argentines trust that these issues will be resolved by one of the two presidential candidates, the Peronist Sergio Massa or the enlightened Javier Milei.
Since the polls in Argentina are useless, no one dares to say who is going to win, the cynic or the crazy one. I do not presume to have a favorite, but I would say that as a general rule an opportunist motivated only by the hunger for power is preferable to a nutcase who believes he is in sole possession of the truth. For example, I would feel less uncomfortable with a criminal like Richard Nixon as president than with Donald Trump.
That said, perhaps it is necessary for Argentina to burn completely, with an arsonist firefighter in charge, so that the urgency of solving the great underlying problem, the one that one of my old school friends identified the other day, is assimilated once and for all. . “We are a country – he told me – in which the corruption of rulers is considered normal.” That's how it is. This is not, of course, a uniquely Argentine phenomenon. Perhaps here lies the difference between democratic countries that function more or less well and those that do not. In the former, moral criteria are key when deciding who governs them; In the others, no.
An old joke says that God gave all the wealth in the world to Argentina and then, to compensate, he gave the Argentines. I see the funny thing, but it doesn't convince me. On the contrary: I don't admire the country but I do admire its people, the most generous I know... with friends. What they lack, I think, to once again be a magnet and, if necessary, a refuge for the world is to be generous with society as a whole, to be more supportive than "living", to love justice for all and respect the law. And let the leaders set the example, as my friend Hugo Porta would preach, demonstrating integrity.
