The surrender of the far-right militants of the Azov regiment, after stubborn resistance to the Azovstal fortress steelworks, is a turning point in the Ukrainian war. Because although the 82-day siege of Mariupol gave the Ukrainians time to receive Western aid, it is no less true that Russia now has the corridor it sought to link Crimea with the Donbass. If Russia managed to link Crimea with Transnistria, conquering Odessa in a bloody battle, it would deny Ukraine access to the sea. The war in Ukraine is getting longer and more complicated. Putin's mistake, which led to rapid territorial success, has led to successive defeats and the use of indiscriminate bombing of thousands of dead civilians. If Putin wanted to assert himself as a world military power, he would have achieved the opposite. Despite his superiority in aviation and missiles, he has had to withdraw from Kyiv and Kharkiv and still has difficulties in the Donbass. Ukrainian troops are partially containing the Russian offensive, thanks to the morale, training and weapons received. We have to keep in mind that the 210,000 Ukrainian soldiers double the number of invading Russians. Russia's logistical and strategic disaster has diminished its ability to intimidate. The opposite of what Putin wanted. It is true that the Ukrainians are not alone. The United States is making a decisive contribution to the war. Not only with weapons and training, but with information, satellite observation, cyber warfare, and artillery and drone fire direction. Talking to fellow consultants from U.S. commanders confirmed to me that they are considering this war as a test bed to contain Russia and China. Even Ukrainian commandos are raiding Russia.
Russia's attempt to push NATO away from its borders is having the opposite effect: Sweden and, above all, Finland are joining the Atlantic Alliance, which is deploying new units in the Baltic countries and Poland. But the purpose of defeating Russia militarily is extremely dangerous. Because Putin can't go back now. It has enough high-tech missiles (because it has been prepared since 2014) to bombard all of Ukraine, and if there is escalation, the border countries. It is possible that if the defeats in the Donbass continue, Russia will end up using tactical nuclear weapons. Which would lead to a NATO response and an escalation of the war in Europe. And from here, things get trickier.
Because Ukraine will not accept partition and Russia cannot accept defeat, it is possible that in a few months an armistice will be reached imitating the Korean War, with a border that still remains with a latent state of war. Negotiation is urgent. Russia has used limited resources due to a giant information error. But a Russia in danger of defeat has enough potential to set fire to much of Europe. And a humiliated Putin will not hesitate to use it. It is time for realistic diplomacy when we are still in time.
4
