They have been rare moments of peace after weeks of suffering. Dozens of Israelis have been reunited, after seven weeks of captivity, with their families in recent days. A brief lull in the Gaza war has allowed Palestinians to emerge from shelters in search of food and fuel, missing relatives and what remains of their homes.
However, those moments have been bittersweet: most of the hostages have not been freed, and most of the Palestinians who have come to see their homes have found them in rubble. They will also be fleeting moments. The truce is scheduled to end on November 28, after four days of calm aimed at facilitating the exchange of 50 Israeli hostages held in Gaza for 150 Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli jails. It could go on for a few more days, but it will end; and the fighting that follows could be worse than the previous ones.
The Israeli Cabinet approved the hostage deal on November 22, after hours of debate and weeks of indirect negotiations with Hamas. The first day went as planned. Both sides stopped fighting on the morning of November 24. In the afternoon, Hamas freed 13 Israeli hostages, ranging in age from two years old for a girl to 85 years old for an elderly woman, as well as another 11 foreigners from Thailand and the Philippines. Israel released 39 Palestinian prisoners from its jails, including women and children.
Now, if the first day was calm, the second was the complete opposite. Hamas delayed the release of the hostages for hours, claiming that Israel had not kept its side of the deal. Israel was supposed to allow 200 trucks of humanitarian aid daily into Gaza during the truce. On the first day, only 137 entered: there are long security checks at the border, which is not prepared to handle a large volume of aid. Despite everything, after mediation by Qatar (which had contributed to the agreement), the exchange went ahead.
The truce could be extended. Following the four-day agreement, every ten hostages released by Hamas will mean another 24 hours of calm. Some Egyptian officials say they have received "positive signals" that this could happen, although neither Israel nor Hamas have confirmed anything.
Hamas has obvious interests in the extension. The extension of the truce will provide the group's military commanders time to regroup and prepare to attack Israeli troops stationed in the northern part of Gaza and to defend the south, where the Israeli army has not yet carried out a major incursion. It will also put greater pressure on Israel not to resume fighting. The families of the hostages want an extension of the agreement. US President Joe Biden also wants it, stating that his goal is to "maintain this pause beyond [the 28th]."
At some point, however, Hamas will exhaust the hostages it is willing to release in this round of negotiations. He is likely to keep Israeli soldiers and men in his power, in the unlikely hope of reaching a larger agreement that includes a permanent ceasefire and the release of many more Palestinian prisoners.
When the truce comes to its inevitable end, Israel will resume the fight against Hamas. Speaking from Gaza on November 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu said: "We have three objectives in this war: eliminate Hamas, secure the return of all our hostages, and ensure that Gaza does not again become a threat to the State of Israel"; and he added: "we will continue until the end, until victory. Nothing will stop us."
In the next round of fighting, Israeli troops will continue to sift through the rubble of northern Gaza for tunnel entrances, rocket launchers and other means of combat. They have yet to enter some parts of the area, such as Shujaiya, east of Gaza City. They will also direct their attention elsewhere. Officials are reserved about how to proceed in the south. It will not be easy for them to send, as they did in the north, armored units to control the area, because it is densely populated with civilians displaced from the north.
Instead, they could try to advance piecemeal: occupying sector by sector, perhaps starting with the central city of Khan Younis and attempting to move Gazans to a designated "humanitarian zone" near the coast. However, this way of acting is fraught with dangers. Civilians would have to choose between crowding into an inhospitable stretch of beach or hiding in their homes or makeshift shelters; Both options could have disastrous results. Fighting without heavy armor in densely populated areas will also pose greater danger to Israeli troops.
It is difficult to assess Hamas' strength (most of its fighters are believed to be hiding in the tunnels), although Israeli officials say about half of the units have suffered heavy losses. On November 26, Hamas confirmed the death early in the war of Ahmed al Ghandur, head of its northern brigade. A member of the group's military council and head of one of its five regional commands, he is one of the highest-ranking militants known to have been killed since October 7. There are reports of unrest in the ranks; above all, among those deployed in the devastated north, where other Hamas leaders have died and the situation is grim. Still, Hamas is by no means ready to give up; and there is no doubt that he will fight harder in the south, defending what could be his last bastion.
All this makes the United States nervous. Biden has not yet called for a ceasefire, but his team is concerned about Israel's plan for a major offensive in the south. "I have encouraged the prime minister to focus on reducing the number of casualties in his attempt to eliminate Hamas, which is a legitimate objective," he declared on the first day of the truce. "This is a difficult task, and I don't know how long it will take."
The United States would like Israel to postpone its campaign in the south; above all, because Netanyahu has no plan for what happens in Gaza after the war. He may urge Israel to continue the offensive in the north and keep the south sealed, for now, with an expansion of humanitarian aid through Egypt. Secretary of State Antony Blinken could visit the region again this week. So will French President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for a lasting ceasefire.
If the United States pressures Israel to hold back, it could spare Gaza's 2.2 million residents a new round of fighting and displacement. However, it will also leave them trapped in an overcrowded and distressing enclave, even smaller than the previous one and under a partially disintegrated Hamas regime: it is not easy to decide which of the two outcomes is more depressing.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
