Declining inflation and a recession that has not yet appeared are two elements of uncertainty that are slowing down the execution of technological projects in companies, recognizes the diagnosis of the IDC consultancy in its annual predictions. By 2023, it postulates an empirical rule: spending on digital technologies by Spanish organizations is in line to grow at a rate much higher than the best that can be expected from GDP.
IDC estimates that the current year will close in Spain with an investment in IT of 51,400 million euros, which represents an increase of 3.4% over 2021, which was good due to the post-pandemic inertia. The same percentage should be repeated in 2023, up to 53,500 million, sums up José Antonio Cano, director of analysis and consultancy at IDC Spain, who predicts a slightly higher average annual growth of 3.9%, with which the total figure it would touch 60,000 million in 2026.
Cano lists three enablers and four inhibitors that shape those trends. The facilitators are: the Next Generation European funds package, the sustainability objectives and the radical transformation of the work model. As for the inhibitors, three are well known: inflation, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the global semiconductor crisis, but Cano highlights another that he calls technical debt and that reflects the insufficient number of trained personnel in companies to address the challenges of IT in the coming phase.
The analyst Cano recalls that “twelve months ago we predicted that by 2023 one in two companies would obtain 40% of their income through the sale of digital products and services. Well, despite the negative factors, which were unforeseeable, today we can say that this percentage has already been achieved in 2022 and the goal becomes higher”.
During the presentation of the Futurescape 2023 report, Cano pointed out that "since 2020 we have been observing a series of trends that have only been partially induced by the pandemic: the percentage of income generated by traditional models decreases, while the percentage that originates thanks to digital business”.
What the industry has dubbed “digital transformation” seems about to move to another stage. Cano distinguishes two phases: one in which the focus has been placed on transforming the business by experimenting with technology and another in which he seeks to attack the digital divide to fully enter - from 2025 - in an era in which digital media will predominate. digital business. The report lists the seven categories that IDC characterizes as "third platform" and that in 2022 have already contributed 41.7% of total billing. In order of importance they have been the following: internet of things, public cloud, big data and analytics, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, process robotics and virtual reality. Together, they will go from 21,621 million this year to 35,682 million euros in 2026, so by then they would be 59.5% of total billing.
The breakdown of IT spending percentages in 2022 reveals that the category that has grown the most (27%) has been cloud infrastructure services, followed at some distance by applications (8.5%) and project development services (5.1%). Devices have suffered a drop caused by smartphones and PCs, but if they have been able to close the year positively, it has been thanks to what was billed in the first half. In addition, the analysis highlights the deployment of the intelligent workplace, a market whose value is estimated at 235,000 million worldwide. IDC points to a growth of 18% for Spain in 2023.
