Agriculture generates 30% of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change and, in turn, will be one of the sectors most affected by global warming. The problems that may arise with global agricultural production will also occur under the pressure of having to feed a constantly growing population with ever-increasing demands. The hope, however, is that climate change will harm some agricultural productions but, on the other hand, will benefit others. The solution therefore will be in the proper selection and planning of crops. This is the thesis that Dr. Jonas Jägermeyr, an expert in the analysis of agrarian models, presented in the extensive interview he recently held with the deputy director of La Vanguardia, Enric Sierra, within the framework of a new edition of the SOS_tenibilidad cycle.
Through the aforementioned cycle of conferences, La Vanguardia has been contributing for more than two years to disseminate the research and reflections of the most internationally prominent scientists and activists who work in defense of the environment. Dr. Jägermeyr, specifically, is an associate research scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) at the Columbia Climate School, is a member of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, and is also a member of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The interview that the deputy director of La Vanguardia did with him was broadcast in streaming through this newspaper's own website on December 28. In it, Dr. Jägermeyr, of German nationality, explained some of the conclusions of the global AgMIP initiative, in which he works together with other 1,500 scientists from around the world to study food production through computer models that simulate Earth systems. all over the planet. These models include data from all processes: how plants grow, how the climate is changing, how weather patterns affect plant growth, or how crops are harvested. From here he analyzes how climate change can potentially change these growth patterns and designs sets of standardized models to reduce uncertainties and create results that are applicable and usable for interested parties.
“We are trying to create – he added – models with very solid future estimates of how climate change can modify agricultural productivity around the world between now and the end of the century.” The progressive development of these models, according to Dr. Jägermeyr, will help farmers and the food system in the future to cushion the impacts caused by global warming through, for example, modifying sowing dates, irrigation systems or to plant varieties that are better adapted to climate change. In this sense, we participate in another large project that studies new opportunity crops, which are more resistant to climate change than the most common main agricultural products, such as corn, wheat, rice and soybeans.
The aforementioned group of scientists has already analyzed twelve different crop models and different climate models. One of the conclusions is that widespread production losses are expected for corn in many regions of the world. But on the other hand, some crops can benefit, such as wheat, in higher latitudes if warming is moderate.”
The aforementioned differences in the evolution of crops, as explained by the doctor, are mainly related to CO2 in the atmosphere. “On the one hand – he said – it causes climate change because it is a greenhouse gas, but plants love it. More CO2 in the air helps plants grow larger and faster. That is why we see greater productivity in crops that are sensitive to these changes.”
Crop transfer
The models that the aforementioned scientific community has developed indicate that the global productivity of corn will suffer very rapid downward changes in a high emissions scenario. On the other hand, for wheat, a positive change will appear. “It is estimated that global wheat productivity will increase thanks to climate change.”
“Climate change – the doctor warned – will not entail widespread negative consequences for everything. “It is a very complex process with potential winners and losers, which we must understand better.”
Changes are imminent
He also warned that “the signal of climate change, in any case, is stronger than we previously thought. Climate impacts are expected to emerge very, very soon. Our models, in particular, indicate that these changes are just around the corner for many grain-growing areas. Therefore, farmers must begin to adapt, look for different varieties, initiate breeding programs, and prepare for these fundamental changes that are expected, which may be positive or negative.”
The models developed by the aforementioned group of scientists predict that the greatest impacts will occur in the low latitudes of the planet, which will generate a disproportionate effect, especially for the poor in low-income countries, who also have a lower capacity to adapt. “This is a cause for serious concern.”
After investigations – stated Dr. Jägermeyr – they are available. They are public. We are an open science community, everything we do at NASA and at Columbia is available to the public and there is a lot of equipment and publications about it. If anyone wishes to use this data we will gladly provide it to them and they will be able to carry out their own climate change impact assessments.”
He also pointed out that from global models we must go down to regional models, as would be the case of Catalonia, talk to people on the ground and take into account local realities to make an implementation strategy viable and realistic.
He also explained that they have developed a measurement system that allows them to sound the alarm about the moment of the appearance of a modification in the climate pattern that can cause things to change substantially and begin a new era. A certain change in a region can mean something very different if it is a very variable context or a very stable context. In the latter, a small change is already substantial.
Dr. Jägermeyr said in the aforementioned interview with the deputy director of La Vanguardia that Cynthia Rosenzweig, one of the leaders of these initiatives, who works with him at NASA, received the 2022 World Food Prize in 2022. This was an event important, as it made computer models to develop paths towards a more sustainable and productive future in agriculture recognized at the highest level. He also considered it very positive that the recent COP28, held in Dubai, recognized for the first time that the food system is a substantial component of the problem of climate change and the space for its solution.
As a consequence of climate change – he also warned – the models confirm that we are facing a system that is destabilizing, with large inter-annual fluctuations in agricultural production of cereals that can cause problems for all participants in the food chain. This variability is a consequence of extreme climate events. Finally, it must be taken into account that climate change not only affects yield and productivity, but also the nutritional content of crops, which represents an even greater challenge for future food security.
