The chances of Podemos and Sumar participating in the next Basque elections as a coalition are practically nil and the possibility of an electoral debacle, also in Euskadi, threatens this political space. Although a group of militants and sympathizers has begun a successful collection of signatures to request “a new attempt” at an alliance, the leaders of both parties consider the negotiations closed and focus on shifting responsibilities to prevent this lack of agreement from affecting them. punish at the polls. Eight years after the emergence of Podemos in the Basque Country, where it won general elections and was third in elections to the Basque Parliament, the objective of the two main formations that emerged from that political space is not to disappear from parliamentary life, as and as has happened in Galicia.
Podemos, which will compete with Alianza Verde, and Sumar, which will compete with Ezker Anitza-IU and Equo, are torn between achieving a meager representation in the Basque Parliament and being left out. The polls place them, in both cases, between 0 and 2 parliamentarians, with the exception of one poll that gives 3 seats to Sumar.
Had they opted for the alliance, meanwhile, they would have guaranteed representation of between 3 and 6 parliamentarians, the same ones that Elkarrekin Podemos now has. It would be a modest result compared to the percentages of votes it achieved between 2015 and 2016, but infinitely better than the situation they now face.
To understand this risk of disappearance, we must first look at the peculiarities of the electoral system that operates in the elections to the Basque Parliament. It is a system not proportional to the number of inhabitants per constituency, in which 75 seats are distributed, 25 for each territory: Álava, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. Furthermore, to achieve representation you must overcome the barrier of 3% of the votes, although being above that percentage does not necessarily guarantee a seat.
The political scientist and professor at the University of Deusto, Braulio Gómez, who is well versed in Basque political reality, describes the bet of competing separately as “reckless”: “A large party can afford the luxury of a split because it has many votes to distribute. . Elkarrekin Podemos, on the other hand, has 6 seats in the Basque Parliament and polls over the last four years place them clearly on the decline, with an average estimate for the entire space of 3 seats. And that competing with a single brand. Taking that perspective into account and taking into account an electoral system in which a minimum of 3% must be reached, dividing that space, already small, is risky, I would say reckless."
The surveys that have collected the possibility, now practically definitive, that Podemos and Sumar run separately grant them, at most, one seat per constituency, although in all cases they would achieve it within the limit of 3%, slightly exceeding that barrier. The latest Sociometer of the Basque Government, for example, grants a seat for Bizkaia to Podemos, while Sumar would obtain a representative for Álava and another for Gipuzkoa. In all cases, these formations would manage to win those seats with vote percentages of between 3% and 4%.
The Gizaker poll for EiTB, the Basque public radio and television station, on the other hand, grants 1 seat for Gipuzkoa to Sumar, while Podemos would obtain a representative for Álava and another for Bizkaia. Again, this representation would be achieved with percentages slightly higher than 3%.
The problem for these formations is that this meager representation is not based on solid voting percentages and that, by fighting for exactly the same electorate, it would be extremely volatile.
“If they are presented separately, the passage of time will further complicate your options. The image of these formations is going to deteriorate due to the perception of uselessness and the bad decision they have made. The identity of these formations will not generate pride among their supporters that could lead them to vote and could fuel abstention or growth in other formations. The pre-campaign and the campaign can be very difficult for them,” says Gómez.
The doctor in Sociology and Political Science from the University of Deusto, however, considers that, beyond the consequences of the division, it is necessary to analyze the extent to which these forces have been left with hardly any space before their electoral competitors: EH Bildu and the PSE.
“We must look at the political space that each party occupies and pay attention to how the identities of the formations with which Podemos and Sumar compete have changed. On the one hand, we find a PSE that has governed with these parties and that, in contrast to the moment in which Podemos emerged, has generated a very left-wing identity, which the PP has endeavored to amplify. The socialists develop left-wing policies and present themselves with a more left-wing and, from a territorial perspective, more plurinational brand. This is something that did not happen when you heard that “they do not represent us.” On the other hand, EH Bildu has been institutionalized and has become a useful party whose votes are used to make leftist policies. Furthermore, regarding the territorial debate, it has renounced maximalist positions and, addressing the issue of violence, its backpack has been unloaded of the past, due to the steps it has taken, because it is a new political project, born in 2011, and by the very passage of time. There have been movements by its competitors that have occupied part of the space that Podemos could represent. They are going to have it complicated. And more separately,” concludes Gómez.
