The results in the Valencian Community will be the most relevant indicator of the 28-M elections. If Ximo Puig is re-elected as president of the Generalitat Valenciana, it will mean that local factors (assessment of management and assessment of leadership) have heavier than the common strategy of the Popular Party and Vox, consisting of calling for a general mobilization against Pedro Sánchez.
If the PP-Vox confluence wins in Valencia five weeks from now, this would not mean an automatic victory for the Spanish right in the general elections in December, but we would be facing a substantial political change. We are not talking about a slight modification of the map.
Spain is a country of strong territorial powers and, in the same way that it is not easy to govern with Catalonia and the Basque Country against it (José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy know this well), neither would Spain be very governable with Madrid, Andalusia and Valencia, three of the four most populous communities, aligned against a second coalition government, perhaps weaker, with the PSOE in precarious alliance with the ill-advised Sumar-Podem couple, in the event that they end up going together to the general elections
"Andalusia takes out and puts in presidents", Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla reminded Sánchez yesterday before the Prime Minister's visit to Doñana Park to criticize the Andalusian Board's management of the aquifers of a protected area, the conservation of which worries the European Union. Sánchez works politically with the European shield. And the right will try to build an almost invincible territorial alliance, with the drought as a great backdrop. It depends on Valencia.
And what is the key to Valencia? Point up, point down, the polls indicate a very tied result in the area of the community, with an advantage for the socialist Puig if local factors are preponderant in the deliberation and there is no strong defeat of the left in the fight by the mayor's office of Valencia. Joan Ribó does not have it easy. The municipal candidate of the Popular Party, María José Català, has more punch than the candidate of the PP for the Generalitat, Carlos Mazón.
The key lies in the reputation of Valencian society vis-à-vis the rest of Spain. The key is in the self-perception of this reputation. The PP driven by real estate gains, Aznar's big bet to fortify a long-term hegemony, lost the Valencian Community due to the accumulation of corruption cases, but that does not explain everything. The PP began to lose the day Valencians began to fear for their reputation. To save Esperanza Aguirre, the conservative press in Madrid began to obsessively point to Valencia. "Gürtel is something for the Valencians". They lost that day.
Eight years later, the PP works with the premise that Valencian society has already turned a corner and that the problem is now Sánchez. During this time, Valencia has regained its reputation and managed to attract the largest industrial investment planned in Spain in the coming years: the large battery factory of the Volkswagen group in Sagunto. This is the sign.
Valencian politics speaks German these days. "Gürtel or Volkswagen", said Puig, emulating the propaganda effectiveness of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who came up with a devastating slogan in the midst of confinement: "Freedom".
