The United States has long been immersed in extreme ideological and political polarization. In society, in the political class and in the institutions. There was even an attempted coup by President Trump. There are hundreds of ongoing trials. But Trump remains the same and with each new trial his popularity increases. He will surely get the Republican nomination for the presidential election. He has 61% preference of Republicans.
The continuity of decisive US support for Zelenski is increasingly doubtful as time goes by and the war settles into the long term, with tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. The division between Democrats and Republicans is reflected in attitudes about the war. In the population, 41% want to keep the aid compared to 35% who reject it. But that support drops to 35% among Republicans. And although it still stands at 52% among Democrats, this proportion has decreased from 61% last May.
The meager results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive are strengthening those who believe that after 44 billion dollars and the delivery of an entire arsenal, Ukraine should be convinced to negotiate even if it loses some territory.
This division has reached the House of Representatives, responsible for the budget. The Government was about to suspend payments a few days ago due to the cuts that the Republicans are trying to impose to bend Biden, against whom they are preparing a futile impeachment attempt. The last-minute commitment to unlock funds removed the 24 billion item for Ukraine from the agreement. And it also caused the vote of no confidence that removed Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the House.
Republican conspiracy leader Matt Goetz is ambiguous about aid to Ukraine. The Republicans have voted this month a new item of only 300 million and it was rejected by 117 Republican votes against and 101 in favor. What's more, Trump, who moves the strings, is supporting Jim Jordan for the presidency of Congress, who is against continuing military aid to Ukraine because, he says, the United States has too many problems and this is not a priority.
In reality, everything depends on the presidential election. If Trump wins, he has already declared that he would end the war by turning off the tap and forcing negotiation. In a future election, Biden and Trump are currently tied, but there are many voters who don't like either. And among these a large majority would ultimately vote for Trump. And by the way, even if the courts convict Trump, he could be president and even pardon himself unless there is disqualification in the sentence.
Unlike Ukraine, support for Israel is unanimous. And the Republicans are not willing to bear the cost of two wars. So due to a deadlock in the Chamber or a presidential political change, the war in Ukraine will end in negotiation with the cession of territory, after hundreds of thousands of victims and the destruction of a country.
