Ukraine and Russia are not yet ready to negotiate. Armies have not yet reached the point of gridlock where there is very little to be gained and much to be lost. Swords continue to fly, but this does not prevent them from taking shape on the basis of which one day, sooner or later, the conflict will have to be resolved.
The Global South, which has maintained an equidistant position during the 18 months of war, now sees how this neutrality plays in favor of peace.
Diplomatic and security advisers from India, South Africa, Kenya, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Brazil are meeting this weekend in Jeddah with colleagues from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom and Ukraine. In total, a long thirty countries are represented at a meeting that, if all goes well, could agree to hold a peace conference before the end of the year, as proposed by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Jeddah meeting is a diplomatic triumph for Ukraine, which has finally caught the attention of China and the Global South to its peace plan.
So is the host, Saudi Arabia, which maintains a very close relationship with China and Russia. The prime minister, Muhammad bin Salman, needs to raise his diplomatic profile to be forgiven for both the war in Yemen and the murder of the journalist Khashoggi.
Bin Salman appears to be moving away from the violence that surrounded his first years in office. It has reached important agreements with Iran, Turkey and Qatar, three former strategic rivals, and is looking for an exit from Yemen.
However, India is best placed to lead the diplomatic effort. Its historic alliance with Russia has been joined by a closer economic relationship since the beginning of the war. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Zelenskiy in May, and since then diplomatic contacts between the two governments have been low-key but regular. It is also good for Modi to enhance his figure as a world statesman in the run-up to next year's elections. India also has great diplomatic experience in balancing rivalries. It dialogues, for example, with China and Pakistan, countries with which it maintains serious territorial conflicts.
Modi is not interested in Russia becoming a vassal of China, as will happen if the war drags on sine die. He prefers it to be an independent actor in a multipolar world, which is why it is important to reach an agreement in Ukraine as soon as possible.
On September 9, India will host another G-20 meeting. Ukraine is not invited, but this does not prevent informal meetings with Ukrainian diplomats.
Zelenskiy's peace plan calls for Russia's complete withdrawal in order to begin negotiations. Many countries in the Global South not only do not see it as necessary, but also believe that Russia should keep the Russian-speaking territories of Ukraine.
The war is far from these countries, but not the consequences. Energy and food prices have soared, and currencies have weakened. Today they have more difficulties to face the foreign debt.
India can ease the situation if it gets, for example, Russia to renew the agreement to export grain from Ukrainian ports. Modi can assert to Putin the weight of their economic relationship, and Putin can reassert his popularity among the African leaders who went with him to St. Petersburg last week.
The options are clear, but the circumstances are difficult. Tensions rise in the Black Sea. Ukraine attacks Russian ports, and Russia attacks Ukrainians.
"Negotiations will be difficult - a European diplomatic source in Jidda acknowledged yesterday - but they always are when there is war. The most important thing is that we can sit down and talk. If we can agree on the date of the next meeting, it will have been worth it."
