The United States, which still maintains a thousand soldiers in Niger, has taken the initiative to try to find a way out of the dangerous situation created by the July 26 coup in the African country. In addition to sending a high-ranking emissary to Niamey to negotiate with the military junta, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, insisted yesterday that the diplomatic route is "preferable" to an armed intervention.
The involvement of the United States in Niger shows the concern of the Biden Administration at the possibility of Moscow further advancing its pawns in the Sahel, becoming a kind of second front in the struggle that Putin is waging with the West in Ukraine, in another expression of the new cold war of the 21st century. The step taken by Washington also highlights the impotence of France, held back by colonial resentments and the frustrating experience of its recent anti-jihadist deployments in several Sahel countries.
Blinken granted two interviews to Radio France International (RFI) and the British BBC. In perfect French, the head of US diplomacy said that Washington supports the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (CEDAO) "to restore constitutional order in Niger". Blinken emphasized the fact that "we act diplomatically to support these efforts" and at no time did he speak of military support, or even logistical, in the face of the eventual use of force, nor of the ultimatum that the neighbours.
The Secretary of State indicated that he was in permanent contact with the leaders of ECOWAS and other African countries, and also "with our partners in Europe, including France". "What we see in Niger is bleak and offers nothing to the country and its people," he continued. "On the contrary, this interruption of the constitutional order puts us, and other countries, in a position where we have to interrupt our aid to Niger, which will not solve anything for the Nigerien people."
When asked if diplomacy is better than military intervention, Blinken did not hesitate: “It is certain that diplomacy is the preferable means of resolving this situation. It is what ECOWAS is looking for, it is what we are looking for; we support the efforts of ECOWAS to restore the constitutional order". The Secretary of State did not want to speculate on whether the US will be forced to withdraw its troops, which partly operate from a drone base. "I cannot comment on this issue of the future" - he replied. "The essential thing is the return to the constitutional order; we work to achieve it. Then, we'll see."
On the BBC, Blinken added other interesting thoughts. According to him, Moscow is not behind the coup, but it is trying to take advantage of it. "I think that what happened and continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but they are trying to take advantage of it," he pointed out. "Every place where Wagner has gone there has been death, destruction and exploitation," he pointed out. "Security has increased instead of decreasing."
Blinken's interviews were broadcast just hours after the delicate mission of his number two, Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who traveled to the Nigerien capital, but failed to interview the coup mastermind and self-proclaimed new head of state, General Abdourahamane Tiani, who until July 26 led the presidential guard of the deposed Mohamed Bazoum. Nuland was also unable to meet with the latter.
The emissary from Washington was indeed able to interview Niger's new Chief of Staff, General Moussa Salaou Barmou. The conversations, according to Nuland, "were extremely frank and, at times, quite difficult." The US undersecretary presented her interlocutors with several options for the coup plotters to back down. "I wouldn't say that this offer was taken into account in any way", he was honest.
The actions of the United States took place in the context of regional contacts and the summit that will be held tomorrow Thursday in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, by the ECOWAS heads of state to decide which way to go. The military junta in Niamey is firm and did not even allow the arrival of any other ECOWAS delegation. The coup plotters argued that "the current context of anger and revolt of the populations as a result of the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS do not allow the delegation to be received with the required serenity and security".
The new masters of the situation in Niamey showed a sign of defiance by appointing a civilian prime minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, which was interpreted as a first step towards the appointment of a transitional government, naturally supervised by the military.
The silence of Emmanuel Macron, the president of the former colonial power of Niger and neighboring countries, is resounding, especially if you consider that Paris still has 1,500 soldiers at a base next to Niamey, a contingent that it was to be the core of the residual anti-jihadist force after Operation Barjan had concluded. The French head of state follows the events and holds meetings by video conference from the summer residence of Fort de Brégançon, on the Mediterranean coast. Part of the Government is on holiday, although ministers must not be more than a two-hour flight from Paris to be able to travel quickly to the capital in the event of a Cabinet meeting.
There is an increasingly unanimous consensus in France, between politicians and the military, that, barring an unexpected turn, an era is turning. Paris has neither the moral authority nor the means to impose a solution on Niger and stabilize the Sahel. The events of recent years speak for themselves. France has seen the domino theory take shape, with the successive fall of governments it supported.
The French press continues to publish comments that deepen the feeling of failure and inevitable withdrawal. The Catholic magazine La Croix warned yesterday in its cover editorial that France should not use force in Niger, not even in support of ECOWAS. "Vilified in the Sahel for its colonial past and its supposed impotence before the jihadists, it would suffer a stronger rejection", warned the newspaper.
