The US is trying to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from taking the opportunity to attack Israel

With unconditional support for Israel assured, the United States' greatest concern is that the war in Gaza does not turn into a regional conflict.

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
13 October 2023 Friday 17:01
8 Reads
The US is trying to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from taking the opportunity to attack Israel

With unconditional support for Israel assured, the United States' greatest concern is that the war in Gaza does not turn into a regional conflict.

The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is currently touring the main capitals of the Middle East with this priority on the agenda.

His tour overlaps with that of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who arrived in Damascus yesterday after having been in Beirut the day before with the leaders of Hezbollah, its main ally and greatest threat to Israel's security.

After meeting with Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Abdollahian condemned Israel's "war crimes" in Gaza, adding that they "will without a doubt provoke a collective response from the axis of resistance”.

This axis is an arc that goes from Iran to southern Lebanon through Iraq and Syria, where it also has allied groups equipped with rockets aimed at Israel. From the north of Yemen, moreover, the Houthis can also lend a helping hand.

Hizbullah is a Shiite militia and political force that dominates Lebanon. It has about 150,000 rockets, a fabulous arsenal that has northern Israel in suspense. The army is on high alert and the drones anticipate the launch of any missile. In the last week and just yesterday there were several skirmishes with exchange of shots, but no incursion into Israeli territory.

During a rally in southern Beirut, Hizbullah's number two assured that they are "fully prepared" to intervene "when the time is right".

The United States has placed the battle group of the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier, one of the most modern in its fleet, in the eastern Mediterranean, both to help Israel and to deter Iran and Hezbollah.

The British Royal Navy reinforces this deterrent flank with more ships and aircraft from.

The Palestinian cause has awakened a solidarity that seemed sold to the economic and strategic interests of many Arab countries to maintain good relations with Israel, a country with very advanced technology and very useful for any intelligence service.

The atmosphere in capitals traditionally sympathetic to Israel is, however, very tense. The images that the satellite channels continuously broadcast of the bombings on Gaza and the devastation they cause in the civilian population have revolted the population and have alerted some leaders who do not forget the uprisings of the Arab springs of 2011.

Blinken, for example, interviewed yesterday in Amman with Mahmud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, a pioneer of the struggle for liberation who today has lost his voice and the support of the street. It took him several days to react and when he did it was with a lukewarm statement, designed to avoid further entanglements with Israel. This moderation can be a problem for US interests today, which the last thing they want is a popular uprising in the occupied territories.

Young Palestinians in the West Bank applaud Hamas and criticize its government for being so pusillanimous. Yesterday they went out on the street to prove it and nine were shot dead. The expansion of the settlements and the arrogance of the colonists entailed for them a humiliation that they liberated with violence.

To contain it, Queen Rnia of Jordan has been much more practical than Abbas by uploading a story on Instagram with a very graphic criticism of Israel's use of force in Gaza. "It is not self-defense - he said - if you are the occupying force".

Arab capitals are trying to balance their support for Palestine without disparaging the United States, and it is not easy.

Blinken, for example, went to Doha from Amman to tell the Qataris to pressure Hamas to release the hostages and, at the same time, to stop aiding it. The emirate, a great ally of the United States, is one of the main benefactors of Gaza and also has good relations with Iran, with which it shares an important gas field in the Persian Gulf.

Blinken also plans to visit Riyadh and Cairo. The Egyptians are key in this conflict. They seem to have much better intelligence than the Israelis in Gaza. They warned, for example, that Hamas was preparing something extraordinary, although their Israeli colleagues did not take the warning seriously.

Egypt depends on military aid from the United States, which can pressure it so that, once Hamas is defeated, it takes over the administration of Gaza to avoid a power vacuum that would allow another radical militia to take over. But Egypt, which already occupied Gaza between 1949 and 1967, does not want this poisoned gift.