The PNB and the PSOE closed yesterday morning, five days after the elections, a global pact to govern together in the main Basque institutions that will have important consequences. The first, in terms of Spanish politics, is that the agreement will allow it to be clearly seen that the strategic ally of the socialists is the PNB, and not EH Bildu. The pact, in fact, blocks the way to the abertzale coalition in important institutions in which it had managed to be the first force. The alliance will also have a significant impact on Basque politics, although in this case it is presented as a double-edged sword that can take its toll on the Jeltzales, since in practice it gives the PP a crucial role in some places
From the point of view of the PSOE's interests in the run-up to the general elections, the pact is irreversible. Faced with the evidence that Alberto Núñez Feijóo needs Vox to reach Moncloa, the Socialists have in mind a campaign in which allusions to a hypothetical government with far-right ministers will be recurrent. The PP believed that it had found in the Government's agreements with EH Bildu in Congress a valid counterargument, a kind of "and you more" that seems to have worked in the last election campaign.
The socialists have bet to remove EH Bildu from the equation by barring him from relevant institutions in the Basque Country. In Navarre, moreover, they have already stressed that they will not support the candidate for mayor of the abertzale coalition in Pamplona, even with the risk that UPN will govern, and the socialist María Chivite has made it clear that her allies to form the government foral are Geroa Bai, a coalition that includes the PNB, and Amb tu/Zurekin, although it needs the abstention of EH Bildu. The PSOE's movements in this regard have been quick and expressive. But it is not at all clear that it is enough for the PP to give up what it considers an electoral pillar.
Attending exclusively to key Basque politics, the alliance has other components. It will allow the PSE to govern again in a Basque capital 12 years later, under the leadership of Maider Etxebarria in Vitoria-Gasteiz. In addition, it will give them the opportunity to have majorities in socialist fiefdoms such as Eibar, Irun, Zumarraga, Lasarte or Ermua.
In the case of the PNB, it will allow it to govern the three provincial councils, it will give it a comfortable majority to govern in municipalities where it has been the first force, such as Bilbao, and it will give it the opportunity to unseat EH Bildu in some localities where it has been second strength The problem for the Jeltzales and, to a lesser extent, for the Basque Socialists, is that the alliance does not operate on the same terms as until now.
This is the case of some of the most important institutions that will be included in the pact. In the city council of Vitoria, the investiture of the PSE candidate (second force, with 6 councilors) to avoid the EH Bildu government (first force, with 7) will need the support of the PNB (fourth, with 6) and, also , the positive vote of the PP (third, with 6), since Podemos (2) has announced its refusal. A similar thing happens in the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa, where EH Bildu has prevailed (22 deputies), and the alternative investiture of the PNB (17) needs the support of the PSE (7) and also the PP (3), since Podemos (2) shall not enter into this sum.
This situation is particularly problematic for the PNB, in the run-up to a general election which it is facing after last Sunday's results. EH Bildu will seek the attrition of the jeltzales with reference to the necessary support of the PP. His goal is to put the PNB in danger again, this time in a general election. Those of Andoni Ortuzar, meanwhile, prioritize maintaining institutional control, placing themselves in a winning position and pretending that the Abertzale coalition is not capable of building enough majorities.
