Spain has clearly moved to the right in the municipal and regional elections on May 28, 2023. The Popular Party manages to win the municipal elections, fortifies itself in Madrid, conquers the largest cities in the country, with the exception of Barcelona, Bilbao and A Coruña, wide positions in Andalusia, can take Extremadura and opens a decisive gap to the left in the territories of the former Crown of Aragon: the Valencian Community, Aragon and the Balearic Islands. The maps of José María Aznar are back, with the valuable addition of Andalusia. In territorial terms it is checkmate to the left.
In order to govern in most of the places in which it has been in first position, the Popular Party, however, will have to count on Vox, which has managed to remarkably consolidate its positions. The PP has grown without diminishing Vox. This is the main code of 28-M. Without a doubt, the extreme right is one of the winning forces of the night.
"The political future of Spain will be settled in the Valencian Community at the end of May." With this headline the Politics section of La Vanguardia opened on April 9. Indeed, things are going in that direction. In the Valencian Community, the right wing achieved its most precious victory last night: it gained a majority with Vox in the Corts Valencianes and conquered the mayoralties of Valencia, Alicante and Castellón, the three provincial capitals. In addition to being able to create a majority in the Generalitat, the right has managed to gain a majority in eight of the 12 Valencian towns with more than 60,000 inhabitants. One of Aznar's most cherished strategic objectives has once again been achieved: the right once again controls the Spanish Mediterranean arc, with the stubborn exception of Catalonia. The only thing that Aznar has not been able to avoid is the construction of the Mediterranean rail corridor.
With Ximo Puig in the lead, the Valencian PSOE improves positions, but their allies have failed them. Goodbye, Pacte del Botànic. Compromís, without Mónica Oltra, has regressed, and Unidas Podemos has not managed to exceed 5% to access the Corts. UP has not managed to exceed 5% in the Community of Madrid either.
The photograph is clear, although it contains many nuances. The right has managed to mobilize with the slogan "throw out Sánchez". The Socialist Party has resisted more than some polls predicted, but it has seen its left flank sink, as a result of several factors, basically two: a change in the sign of the protest vote and internal struggles. The left pillar of the legislature has collapsed under excessive pressure.
The assembly held last April in the Magariños pavilion in Madrid to proclaim Yolanda Díaz candidate for the presidency of the Government, without the support of all the forces summoned, has proven to be a blunder. The main groups present in that assembly (Comuns, Izquierda Unida, Compromís and Más Madrid) have regressed in one way or another, and those absent (Podemos) have been left out of the parliamentary assemblies that have the bar set at 5%.
Disunity penalizes and fights only excite the unconditional. Adding does not add up and Podemos cannot. If we add to all this the defeat of Ada Colau in Barcelona, it can be affirmed that the cycle of left-wing contestation that began with the 2014 European elections and the 2015 municipal elections has run out of propulsive force. Social discontent has shifted towards abstention and the extreme right, following the pattern of other European countries.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo is consolidated as the leader of the Popular Party and candidate for the presidency of the government in the general elections in December. His candidacy was not formally at risk, but a mediocre result of the PP in the Mediterranean area, in contrast to the absolute majority of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, could have placed him in serious difficulties.
Díaz Ayuso's team has strategically directed the campaign of the popular, but the battle in December will be fought by Núñez Feijóo, with a chance of success, although without the spectacular tsunami of a million votes ahead in the municipal elections, which last night predicted the electoral researcher Narciso Michavila.
At the close of this edition, with 96% of the votes counted, the PP was three points ahead of the PSOE at the municipal level, with an advantage of some seven hundred thousand votes. It is a lot, but it would not be structurally decisive in other circumstances. What is decisive are the territorial conquests. What is decisive is the Mediterranean tilt. The Popular Party, however, will need Vox to gain effective control of the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and Aragon. And that will have a price. One of the most delicate tasks for Núñez Feijóo in the coming weeks will be managing the future relationship with Vox.
Losing the municipal elections by three points does not entail an automatic defeat in the general elections. This could be the relief of the PSOE if it had been able to retain the Valencian Community, Aragon and the mayors of Seville and Valencia. It hasn't been like that.
Spain turns to the right, following the guidelines that come from the rest of Europe. Pedro Sánchez's left pillar of the legislature collapses resoundingly and Bildu grows in the Basque Country and Navarra. Alberto Núñez Feijóo conquers the Mediterranean but remains tied to Vox. Complex picture. The December elections are not yet decided.
