Spain has moved clearly to the right in the municipal and regional elections of May 28, 2023. The Popular Party manages to win the municipal elections, strengthens itself in Madrid, conquers the most important cities in the country, with the exception of Barcelona , Bilbao and A Coruña, expands positions in Andalusia and opens a decisive gap to the left in the territories of the former Crown of Aragon: Valencian Community, Aragon and the Balearic Islands. The maps of José María Aznar are back, with the valuable addition of Andalusia. In territorial terms it is checkmate on the left.
In order to govern in most of the places where it has been in first place, the Popular Party will, however, have to count on Vox, which has managed to consolidate its positions remarkably. The PP has grown without diminishing Vox. This is the main key to the result. Without a doubt, the extreme right is one of the winning forces of the night.
"The political future of Spain will be resolved in the Valencian Community at the end of May". La Vanguardia's Politics section of April 9 opened with this headline. Indeed, things are going in that direction. In the Valencian Community, the right achieved its most precious victory last night: it adds a majority with Vox in the Valencian Courts and conquers the mayorships of Valencia, Alicante and Castelló, the three provincial capitals. In addition to being able to create a majority in the Generalitat, the right has managed to add a majority in 8 of the 12 Valencian towns of more than 60,000 inhabitants. One of Aznar's most cherished strategic objectives has once again been realized: the right once again controls the Spanish Mediterranean arc, with the stubborn exception of Catalonia. The only thing that Aznar could not avoid is the construction of the Mediterranean rail corridor.
With Ximo Puig at the helm, the Valencian PSOE is improving its positions, but its allies have failed it. Goodbye, Botanical Pact. Compromís, without Mónica Oltra, has retreated, and Unides Podemos has not managed to exceed 5% to gain access to the Courts. UP has also failed to exceed 5% in the Community of Madrid.
The picture is clear, even if it also contains many nuances. The right has managed to mobilize with the slogan "get rid of Sánchez". The Socialist Party has resisted more than some polls predicted, but has seen its left flank collapse, as a result of several factors, basically two: a change in the sign of the protest vote and infighting.
The assembly held in April at the Magariños pavilion in Madrid to proclaim Yolanda Díaz a candidate for the presidency of the Central Government, without the support of all the forces summoned, has proven to be a colossal mistake. The main organizations present in this assembly (Comuns, Esquerra Unida, Compromís and More Madrid) have retreated in one way or another, and those absent (Podem) have been left out of the parliamentary assemblies that have set the bar at 5% .
Disunity punishes and fighting only excites the stalwarts. Adding doesn't add up and Podemos can't. If we add to all this the defeat of Ada Colau in Barcelona, it can be said that the cycle of contestation by the left that began with the European elections of 2014 and the municipal elections of 2015 has run out of propulsive force. Social discontent has moved towards abstention and the extreme right, following the pattern of other European countries.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo consolidates himself as leader of the Popular Party and aspires to the presidency of the Government in the general elections in December. His candidacy was not formally at stake, but a mediocre result for the PP in the Mediterranean area, in contrast to the absolute majority of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, could have placed him in serious difficulties.
Díaz Ayuso's team has strategically led the popular campaign, but the December battle will be fought by Núñez Feijóo, with a chance of success, although without the spectacular tsunami of a million votes ahead in the municipal elections , which electoral researcher Narciso predicted last night.
At the end of this edition, with 96% of the votes counted, the PP took three points from the PSOE in the municipal area, with an advantage of around seven hundred thousand votes. It's a lot, but it wouldn't be structurally decisive in other circumstances. The decisive factor is the territorial conquests. The decisive factor is the Mediterranean swing. The Popular Party, however, will need Vox to gain effective control of the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands and Aragon. And that will come at a price. One of Núñez Feijóo's most delicate tasks in the coming weeks will be managing the future relationship with Vox.
Losing the municipal elections by three points does not mean an automatic defeat in the general elections. This could be the relief of the PSOE if, in addition, it had been able to retain the Valencian Community, Aragon and the mayorships of Seville and Valencia.
Spain turns to the right, and follows the guidelines coming from the rest of Europe. To Pedro Sánchez, the left pillar of the legislature collapses and Bildu grows in the Basque Country and Navarre. Alberto Núñez Feijóo conquers the Mediterranean but remains tied to Vox. Complex picture. The December elections have yet to be decided.
