Pedro Sánchez accompanies with the flag of the European Union every step in his strategy of "political normalization" of Catalonia. He uttered the word amnesty for the first time between Ursula Von der Leyen and Charles Michel saying goodbye to the Spanish presidency of the EU and now he is raising a wall between independence and terrorism at the exit of the last European Council. "Independenceism will be amnesty". The European scene is more prone to pacts than Congress, where Míriam Nogueras' phone calls indicate the meaning of the Junts vote and its collateral effects on the Spanish Government, the PSOE and independence.
The forcefulness of Sánchez's demonstration, underpinned by the anthropological optimism of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero - "Yes, there will be an amnesty law. I have no doubt" – confirms that, if the president closed a door on Tuesday by not giving in to Junts' demands, he opened a window on Thursday. The disagreement is in the "technical-legal" field due to the definition of terrorism and the political question is obvious in the majority of the investiture: Can there not be an amnesty law by decision of Junts? It is the vein in which ERC is digging.
The post-convergents assure that nothing has been broken and "there is room" for negotiation, but the maneuver may have more risks than benefits. Junts' decision to stop the amnesty law in Congress was a net "no". The return of the text to the justice commission is now defended as a way to seek technical solutions and reconstruct arguments. Another thing is the image of low reliability offered by Carles Puigdemont's party and the unrest, also internal, which causes another negotiating deadlock. The "more than a thousand absolutely destroyed families" that Vice-Councillor Sergi Sabrià put on the table are from Junts or ERC. The trial of Minister Garriga, Josep Maria Jové and Lluís Salvadó is to begin on April 10.
Puigdemont appreciates Sánchez's firm commitment to the amnesty, but the parallel activity of the judges shakes up the negotiations and disrupts electoral strategies. The Galician campaign is underway and Sánchez is fighting on two fronts: refloating Galician socialism and avoiding the absolute majority of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's heir, even if he is behind the BNG. After the circumspect faces of the chamber because of Junts' "no", the hermeticism is again imposed, including the meeting of the party table that was scheduled in Geneva for the end of the month. There will hardly be any progress before going to the polls in Galicia. Every vote in the plebiscite against the right counts.
If the Central Government was looking to turn over the amnesty to negotiate the budgets, the Junts maneuver forces a rethink of the operation planned for April. And it affects a possible exchange of supports with Catalan accounts. In May, another electoral campaign threatens. The European ones will be a Sánchez-Feijóo plebiscite, with the right growing among the 27 and Puigdemont as Junts candidate. There are no plans to repeat the duel with Oriol Junqueras. Neither politics nor judges guarantee their qualification.
The ex-president has the mission of winning in Catalonia, breaking with the story of the victorious PSC on the way to the Palau de la Generalitat and trying to relegate ERC. The parliamentary arithmetic arising from the last generals has led to Puigdemont's change of strategy. He is negotiating with the Sánchez Government and is aware of the need to formally recover the organic command of Junts that he ceded at the Algiers congress and to reassess the balance between families. The opportune moment may be after the European elections. Junts is a party of electoral sprints, so the proclamation of the candidate for the Catalans can be subject to the judicial transit of the amnesty and the polls.
Zapatero talks a lot about Junts as a "responsible party" and not much about ERC. The experience of the PSOE and ERC with pardons and the reform of the Penal Code guarantees that there will be no shocks with the amnesty. In the meantime, the messages in Junts are redoubled. "The time has come to take the step", warns Sánchez. Only Puigdemont has the answer to where.
