In the preface to The Russo-Ukrainian War (Ed. Península), the Ukrainian historian Serhí Plokhi recalls how on February 24, 2022, he carefully chose his clothes. The Russian invasion surprises Vienna. He had a job, and he remembered what the US diplomat George F. Kennan had done when he had heard that Hitler was attacking Czechoslovakia. He groomed himself carefully, as if to say that, whatever happened, he was determined to resist. The prestigious Harvard professor embodies this resistance in a detailed book that reveals how the imperial impulse of Vladimir Putin has led Europe to the biggest military conflict since the Second World War.
The weak response of the Western states, especially European, led to the war?
If the response to the annexation of Crimea had been stronger, the current war would not have broken out. In 2014 it was considered to be only an exception. Even after the start of the war in the east, one of the commanders of the German Navy said that all that was needed to solve the problem was to show "respect" to Putin. It was the reflection of thinking in many European countries. The responsibility always lies with the aggressor, of course, but the appeasing position of the EU helped make this war possible.
Winter arrives and the counter-offensive stagnates.
Russia has learned from its defeats. On the Ukrainian side, morale remains high, but they are having difficulty getting the military equipment needed by Western allies. Washington accuses Berlin, Berlin accuses Washington... It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The West lives in a kind of magical thinking. First he miscalculated Russian military power. And after the Ukrainian success, it has entered another phase in which a successful counter-offensive is expected without aircraft and long-range missiles. It was magical thinking. And there was no magic.
There is talk of "Ukrainian fatigue" in Washington and in Europe. No progress and with the US elections around the corner. Do you fear that Zelenski will have difficulties in getting resources?
The timing is not in favor of the Ukrainians or the coalition. The spring and summer of next year will be decisive. I do not foresee support disappearing entirely, but the risk of a significant decrease at a time when Russia is increasing its capabilities is real, not only for Ukraine. At stake here is not only respect for the international order or the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. This war is a war of a democratic country against an authoritarian country. Democracy is in danger not only on the Ukrainian battlefront, but also in Washington, in European capitals... The war in Ukraine is also an internal affair.
Is the new war between Israel and Gaza benefiting Putin?
It has already benefited him. On the one hand, it distracts attention. On the other hand, the resources of the allies are limited and it has already been published that some defensive weapons that were to be sent to Ukraine will now go to Israel. As if that weren't enough, it also helps Putin strengthen his role in the Global South, where support for Ukraine has always been partial and Ukraine's message that it was fighting the empire has not been taken seriously. For much of the Global South, anti-imperialism is associated with the West, and the war in Ukraine does not fit into this paradigm. Now, with the war on Israel and the West supporting it, any support there might have been is being eroded.
We are heading towards a difficult phase of the conflict...
We will see clearer divisions. Israel's war has contributed to the widening of the gap between the countries that support Ukraine and those that are in solidarity with Russia. It is not good news for Israel or Palestine. And they are very bad for Ukraine.
