The moment of no return was on November 6 of last year, when Pablo Iglesias cried: "We can, we must be respected!". Not even two years had passed since Iglesias appointed Yolanda Díaz as her successor, but the always leader of Podemos couldn't take it anymore and exploded. Along the way there had been signs that things were not going well, such as that act by Díaz with Ada Colau, Mónica Oltra and Mónica García, in which the vice-president predicted: "It is the beginning of something wonderful". It was the beginning of a estrangement that has been simmering until culminating in this week's breakup, with consequences for the future of the left and governance.
The conflict was served from the moment Díaz began to make decisions on his own, without consulting either Iglesias or Irene Montero or Ione Belarra, there in the spring of 2022. The plant was already born crooked, since the Iglesias chose the vice-president as her successor thinking of political and social leadership, but not of the party. A member of the PCE, Díaz was invested as an electoral poster, but without command over Podemos. And she wanted to build her own artifact rather than submit to the directives of others. At the same time, the lilacs were losing electoral weight and feeling increasingly humiliated. So the passage of the Podemos deputies to the Mixed Group was done, although its speed is surprising, having just inaugurated the legislature.
It seemed that the most profitable thing for Podemos was to exercise a critical voice within Sumar and wait for Díaz to release them to revel in the role of victim. In the environment of the vice-president they assured that there would be no desertion for economic convenience. The finances of Podemos are indeed not prosperous, but it turns out that the jump to the ministries of Ernest Urtasun and Sira Rego have left two vacancies as MEPs that will be occupied by two members of Podemos, an unexpected financial injection. The lilacs want to start the refloating plan as soon as possible after the European elections in June. This is how Iglesias began his day. And they need time to profile their voters.
For this reason, they will negotiate directly with the PSOE and will have their own voice in Congress. The strategy is to confront the central government now that they are no longer in it. Moreover, they have been kicked out and can claim that it is because they are uncomfortable in power. It is about contrasting proposals with the socialist side, as Iglesias has always done, to emphasize that the PSOE is condescending to the powerful, but also to Díaz, in a more subtle way. For the voter, it is difficult to distinguish Podemos from Sumar. Lilacs need to differentiate themselves. They will present themselves as the brave left in the face of the bocamoll (PSOE) and the submissive (Sumar) in economics, social policy and above all feminist, taking advantage of the anodyne profile chosen by the socialists for that ministry. Podemos will fight a few battles, but the ones they raise will be serious, even if their intention is not to throw the legislature to the ground. The first thing Belarra did was to inform Minister Félix Bolaños that Pedro Sánchez's mandate is not at risk.
The figure to be relaunched is Irene Montero, likely candidate for the Europeans. Podemos will try to strip its new leader of the heavy backpack of the ministry. Montero was one of the most well-known in the Spanish Government, above Díaz, even if her assessment is quite worse. But his leadership is aimed at a very specific sector of the left. If Díaz has the image of a good negotiator, but ductile, Montero will enter the profile of a strong woman, with courage, who does not bend. Like a left-wing Margaret Thatcher, which fits in with the defense of a firm left against the PSOE or its supposed satellites like Sumar. That's why Díaz finds it so irritating that the socialists are considering going to Galicia together, since they approve of Sumar's docility thesis. On the left of the PSOE, there is always the fear of the socialist siren songs that seduced so many: from Rosa Aguilar to Cristina Almeida or Diego López-Garrido.
Elucidating whether Podemos will succumb, Sumar will be charged or both will coexist is a matter of time. What is true is that the split adds complications to Sánchez. The president began to take care of his old/new ally by stressing in an interview with Antena 3 that Podemos is "a progressive force" with whom it is not a problem to negotiate. The PSOE will have to face them with a Catalan front in which not only Junts and ERC compete, but even Carles Puigdemont with the political myth that he and his people have built of his figure. Also with a Basque front in which Bildu is fighting to unseat the PNB. And now the left flank is tense. In turn, Podemos will try to form a left-wing bloc with Bildu, ERC and BNG. And perhaps a possible alliance on the right between PNB and Junts.
Sánchez will not be able to search for variable geometry. All the pieces must fit. The partners are aware that the first budgets must be approved. From there, the European elections will determine the direction and weight of each one. And not only Podemos sees them as a turning point. It will also be the case for the PSOE and the PP.
