Tall, lean, with long limbs and a cavernous, assertive voice, Jaime Miquel (Madrid, 1959) is considered one of the greatest experts on electoral behavior in the country. Author of The Perestroika of Felipe VI, a book that in 2014 anticipated the end of the two-party system and the urgency of democratic modernization, after four decades of what he calls “post-Francoism”, Miquel has advised more than half of the parties in the parliamentary arch and has been Pedro Sánchez's electoral behavior advisor from 2018 to 2023.
The immediate thing is the Galician elections. Is there a match?
There are two factors that tell us that change is perfectly possible. The first is that Rueda is not a better candidate than Feijóo. Feijóo was at 48% and got 42 deputies. With the PP at 45.5% he would have 37 seats, that is, he is two and a half points away from losing the absolute majority. Although in reality he is more like 47%, not 48%, then he is a point and a half away from losing the Xunta. And on the other hand, in the general elections, private polls lost all credit and voters lost all confidence in what they say. In Galicia, when the polls gave the PP an absolute majority, the campaign ended and a contest broke out on the left side to see who would lead the opposition. This is not going to happen this time, it is very clear. Voters are going to distrust, so the feeling that there may be change is going to last until the last day.
I understand.
On the other hand, Sumar is at 4.4% in Galicia, at 5.1% in Pontevedra and at 5% in A Coruña. For it not to enter, the total data should be closer to 4% than 4.5%. Podemos is marginal and champions lack of understanding, so it can only steal a few votes. As soon as Sumar is above 65,000 or 70,000 votes in Galicia, it is in both provinces and there is no majority for the PP. The positions are very defined and the BNG is ahead of the PSOE, with about 320,000 votes.
And what incentive does the PSOE have to give power to the BNG and see Sumar return to parliament?
That is a good question. In this section of 2024, what the PSOE has on its way are European elections where it needs all the votes, including those of Sumar, to be the list with the most votes ahead of the PP. And for this the rise of Vox is more important than what the PSOE can take away from Sumar. That's why Feijóo is right in his tactic of not giving them space. It is a tactical success, although a strategic error, because it moves away from occupying the central spaces, those provided by the government.
So?
If there is a change of government, it would mean handing over the presidency to Ana Pontón and the Bloc would be aligned with ERC and Bildu, the three communities, in the field of non-Spanish nationalists. But if the PP loses the Xunta de Galicia, the political future of Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes very dark. The PSOE is about to eliminate it. It is an important incentive for the PSOE, especially because now we will stop talking about the Galician women and we will go to the parliamentary session of the week. Because the PSOE – Enric Juliana also highlighted it recently in an article – needs everyone's consensus. You cannot behave, PSOE, as you have behaved until now. Because? Well, because there is no route there. You have to negotiate everything with everyone and every time. And in that sense, the votes on the decrees have a very healthy didactic contribution. That is to say, this is not about “entailing”, this is about the historical opportunity to produce a profound cultural change in the political culture of the PSOE and the rest of the parties. It is fully transversal and transferable to society as a whole. I explained this in an article in Infolibre.
Yes, about plurinationality.
It is a Spanish identity concept. The Catalan independentists are uninational nationalists, like the Spanish nationalists of Vox and PP. But Spain is plurinational. That is to say, which Spain do you carry in your heart? That Spain where the sun does not set? It is that of Philip II. And what was that Spain like? She was not Castilian. It was a set of kingdoms autonomous in their national designs.
If it happened, it was Vizcaína.
Yes, or even Extremaduran.
TRUE.
So, you turn inside out when they talk to you about amnesty, because the Spain that you rationalize is that of Nueva Planta, with a Castilian matrix, planted by Francisco Franco and therefore authoritarian. There is a contradiction between that Spain that you long for where the sun does not set, which was, saving distances, plurinational and the one that makes you react, which is one, national, Castilian and authoritarian.
The European elections are the test of endorsement of the July result, that Spain is really existing and not a situation, and Feijóo's future is at stake. But Euskadi and Catalonia are on the calendar.
I don't have data about Euskadi or Catalonia, but I do have impressions. Impressions and memory. That is to say, the PNV is a political formation that always improves the initial results estimated for it during the campaign. My impression is that these elections will be won as always by the PNV, with a significant progression of Bildu and with a setback of the state formations, PP and PSOE. And as a political result, a PNV government supported by the PSOE.
And the Catalan elections?
My impression is that the PSC is going to have a great result, corresponding to a turning of the page in Catalan politics. We are no longer in times of unilateralism or confrontation with what they call “the State.” We are in another phase, a phase of concrete agreements. And there you have the Amnesty law, but also other agreements that can be expressed in a renewed statute. We are there more than anywhere else.
