Polls anticipate a major rise in far-right parties in June's European elections. They will get around 25% of the votes because the current situation benefits them. The electorate is tired of the permanent crises and disappointed with the response of its leaders.
The strategy of the centre-left and centre-right parties has been to take on proposals from the radical right, especially on immigration and climate change. However, it has not managed to retain its electoral base or curb the enthusiasm aroused by the populists.
If these parties base their campaign on the most recurring issues that most mobilize the far right, they will have nothing to do. If they prioritize immigration, climate change or the war in Ukraine, they will facilitate the triumph of populism, according to the latest study by the European Center for Foreign Relations.
Based on this evidence, its authors, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, have drawn up a road map to prevent the next European Parliament from being held hostage by anti-Europeans. They believe that it is possible to disprove the polls if the candidates leave behind rhetorical abstractions and propose pragmatic solutions to the socio-economic problems, which are the ones that most concern the electorate.
Of all the crises that have fallen on the shoulders of European citizens in recent years, none is more important to them than the economic one. Inflation that is growing above wages has shot up inequality and the perception that politicians, when they talk about the transition to a green economy, are not at all concerned that gas and electricity will skyrocket. The majority of Europeans, for example, prefer the EU to delay the goal of zero emissions by a few years in exchange for energy being cheaper.
The feeling of vulnerability and uncertainty about the solidity of the welfare state was heightened during the pandemic and has not abated. The ultra-right exploits it with the help of migratory chaos.
This seems to be the star issue of the campaign, but not because it is a priority for Europeans, but, as Krastev and Leonard say, "because the extreme right has turned it into a symbol of the EU's failures".
In addition to leaning to the extreme on the migration issue, the moderate leaders want to stand up for the successes of an EU that has overcome the pandemic, helps Ukraine, combats the climate crisis and precariousness.
The study, however, shows that it will be a mistake if they do. These are the issues that most mobilize the extreme right. Most Europeans also believe that they were not managed well.
Achievements are always taken for granted. They are not valued. What remains, as Krastev and Leonard explain, "is the resentment of the skeptics". This is what most defines political identities today.
We must not insist on what has been done well, we must lower the tone on immigration and not talk much about Ukraine.
The study indicates that Ukraine mobilizes the extreme right. Total commitment to their defense comes at a cost that many voters find excessive. Only one in ten Europeans also believes that it will help Ukraine win the war.
Much better than beating the drums of war against Russia, Krastev and Leonard propose to argue that Europe needs to fend for itself. The threat that a Trump in the White House will abandon him to his fate can mobilize the vote of Europeanists much more than the desire to bring down Putin.
Krastev and Leonard believe that the best way to defeat the extreme right is not to provoke it, and for this reason, the candidates must talk less about Putin and more about issues very close to voters.
The vast majority of those who are undecided, for example, are women (71% in Spain) and the issues that worry them the most are abortion, gender-based violence, family reconciliation and the treatment of minorities.
A close and pragmatic campaign, with more solutions than threats, will mobilize voters, which now, just like in 2019, Europe needs to move forward.
