Remote-looking characters, from a tribal country, always armed, often divided, a legendary country, birthplace of coffee and the Queen of Sheba and at the same time Saudi Arabia's backyard, Yemen's Houthis have achieved a unprecedented notoriety endangering the merchant traffic of the Red Sea. Their flag, the defense of the – far away for them – Palestinian people in the face of the – also unprecedented – destruction of Gaza by the Israeli army. Ansarul·lah, the militia party that brings them together, founded by the brothers Hussein and Abdul Malik al-Huthi (hence the name Huthis), has, however, other motivations.
The Kalashnikov-wielding, flip-flop-wearing Houthis seized control of about two-thirds of the country in 2014, including the capital, Sana'a, by taking advantage of the political chaos and using a mix of tribal relations management and offensive force, with which they expel Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula from much of the territory. Saudi Arabia, at the head of a modest Arab coalition but with the help of the United States and British military, has been trying to defeat them since 2015.
A new round of peace negotiations was about to succeed, apparently after a year, in December. The Houthis want to be recognized as the dominant power in Yemen (they control 70%-80% of the population), and Saudi Arabia sees the constant attack of Houthi drones and missiles on its territory as a serious problem for major projects of Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, managed by China, was supposed to make things easier, when Tehran promised to give in on the support it has given the Houthis for years. But Gaza has changed everything and the Houthis have become the spearhead of the so-called Axis of Resistance against Israel sponsored by Tehran.
If, as some believe, the Lebanese Hizbullah constitutes the front line of the axis of the Resistance, this time it does not seem so. The statements of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, are less and less worthy of attention and the southern front in Lebanon continues - at least so far - at a low level. Some believe that the Houthis may have prevented Israel from expanding the war in Lebanon. With the help of Hezbollah - which has been supporting the Houthis in Yemen for years - and Iranian advisers, who would be identifying and selecting the ships to attack in the Red Sea, the Houthis are leading a major change in 'scenario of the great conflict in the Middle East, regardless of whether it was all the idea of Iran or themselves, who for some reason have been engaged in this kind of practice for a long time - attacks and hijacking of ships – and they face the US Navy.
Using social media like never before, evoking human rights conventions or directly challenging the European Union, the Houthis are gaining prestige in the Arab world, and even in general among defenders and sympathizers of the Palestinian cause. But some observers and specialists in Yemen agree that the Houthis will use prestige and notoriety to secure a favorable peace deal with Saudi Arabia. The key for them is to negotiate with the Saudis on the sidelines of other Yemeni factions, the Government or the secessionists of the south backed by the Emirates, a friendly country of Israel, by the way, and the other regional power on the other hand complex Yemeni equation. The Saudis and Emiratis, however, prefer to believe that the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are only about Gaza; in this way, they swim and keep their clothes. Saudi Arabia, which continues to officially support the Palestinians, cannot appear as the enemy of the Houthis.
On the other hand, no one wants an escalation. Thus, the Arab countries show their "concern" about the Houthi attacks on ships and about the US response by bombing Yemen. And of course, they are not added to the American naval operation Guardian of Prosperity, although Bahrain – a subsidiary country of Saudi Arabia – is acting as a base. Only Oman – a country that traditionally mediates with Iran – has spoken out against the Western attacks. The European Union, which is preparing its own naval operation, does not think in terms of combat, while everyone remembers that the Houthis were able to withstand nine years of war with Saudi Arabia and its Arab and Western allies still that it was at the cost of starving the population and the destruction of civil infrastructure. In addition, the trafficking of weapons and materials supplied by Iran has not stopped flowing to the Houthis; by land, thanks to corruption in the territory supposedly controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni Government, and by sea, thanks to the Somalis. It must be remembered that Somali piracy – a product of foreign fishing overexploitation and Western dumping of toxic waste on its shores – remains active. The Houthis can maintain the fight for quite some time.
But it is not the first time that the US has launched a campaign against the Houthis (Obama, in 2016, for example) nor is the current one being bloody. The United States – and President Joe Biden himself – have acknowledged that the bombing of missile sites and factories has so far served little (or nothing). These would be limited attacks. Although, according to the Middle East Eye portal, which cites Iranian sources, Washington previously warned Tehran of the attacks through Saudi Arabia, which would be acting as a communication channel.
If it is still considered that the Houthis are allies of Iran but do not feel obliged to follow its orders (the axis of the Resistance, which also includes Hizbullah, Hamas and Iraqi and Syrian Shia militias, starts from the autonomy of its members), everything indicates that it would be more interesting for the US not to press too hard and facilitate an agreement between Ansarullah and Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, an escalation would give Gaza even more dimension, which serves as a pretext for everyone.
