July will be the warmest month ever recorded on Earth, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and travel agencies are already recommending to try to avoid tourist destinations where, at certain times, the high temperature makes it inadvisable book an excursion in full sun. This has long been the case in Egypt, with three main focus areas, Cairo, Alexandria and Luxor, where summer is low season. The same happens in Tunisia. The problem is that the usual extreme conditions during the summer period on the African continent are starting to move to the other side of the Mediterranean. Greece, Italy, Croatia and also Spain are the countries most exposed to the consequences of climate change in terms of tourism and, therefore, the economy, according to the European Commission.
Santorini Island, in the Aegean Sea. It's nine o'clock at night. Restaurants full of tourists. Suddenly, hundreds of mobile phones emit the same whistle. It is an alert, in the form of a text message, sent by the authorities to the inhabitants and people who spend the summer in the area, in which they are warned of temperatures of up to 46ºC (in Spain, this system, known as ES- Alert, it has been operational since February and is managed by the Ministry of the Interior). In addition to the intense heat, this summer there were fires in Corfu and Rhodes, which forced the evacuation of more than 2,000 tourists. In the capital, Athens, the Acropolis had to close due to the intense heat wave. Something similar happens in Rome. Or in Naples. The thermometer in southern Europe is on the rise and tourists have to flee destinations where it is not so easy to cool off.
In Spain, the coastal areas or the islands barely notice the intense heat. But in the interior it already causes a reduction in the number of travelers. In Madrid, for example, in July and August 2022 there was a drop in visitors, mainly due to the intense climate in the capital. Something similar happens in Seville. Non-coastal cities suffer from high temperatures, points out Carlos Albella, general secretary of the Tourism Board. It is not that tourists stop traveling, but that they prefer to go to other areas. "The problem - he adds - is that these extreme phenomena are increasingly common and drive visitors away".
The problem is already a reality. Moody's raised the alarm this week and pointed out in an ad hoc report the consequences of increasingly frequent and intense heat waves for tourism in countries such as Spain: "They can reduce the attractiveness of the south of Europe as a long-term tourist destination or, at least, reduce demand in the summer, which will have negative economic effects, given the importance of the sector". The Spanish economy, in particular, would be the most punished if the trend continues, warns the agency. "If global average temperatures rise by nearly 1.5°C, the European Commission estimates that debt ratios would be 4.5 percentage points higher in Spain in 2032, 2.6 percentage points higher in Greece and 2, 2 percentage points higher in Italy, mainly as a result of the economic and fiscal costs of extreme climate events”. In other words, not only will fewer tourists travel to certain destinations, but being able to operate in these warm areas will also lead to additional costs. Notice to navigators for those in the south of the continent.
The countries of northern Europe are also not, by a long shot, strangers to rising temperatures and drought. "Supply chains are also affected, because the water level on the main river transport routes is close to historic lows", points out Moody's. For example, on the Rhine, where costs have increased and traffic has decreased, adds the risk analysis and studies provider. Hydroelectric generation also plummets if swamps and rivers have less water.
Tourism in southern Europe, and specifically in Spain, is experiencing a moment of transition. Spanish businessmen say that, at the moment, they do not notice changing trends. In other words, tourists, essentially foreigners, continue to visit warm places in the summer, such as Madrid, Seville or Granada. It is true that national tourists think twice about visiting an inland city in the middle of July or August. But what is beginning to increase is the tourist's growing concern for extreme weather. This is indicated by a survey published at the beginning of July by the European Travel Commission, which concludes that 8% of EU tourists show concern about possible extreme weather conditions when planning their holidays. It doesn't seem like a high percentage, but it is when compared to the fact that the war in Ukraine bothers 12% of respondents.
Spain is a tourist destination that relies on price and customer satisfaction to compete with North African countries or other European destinations. Travelers value the sun and the national beach, gastronomy, art... The problem is that climate change is already influencing these conclusions. This is considered by Mabrian, a company that measures through a tourist intelligence platform the effect of adverse weather in a destination on visitor satisfaction during the stay. The conclusions are clear: "With tourists who have suffered a heat wave during their stay at the destination, we have noticed that they have a widespread and significant drop in the score on what they think of the experience and the overall perception of the trip. ”, explains Carlos Cendra, partner and marketing director of the company. In this sense, Spain suffered a drop of ten points in the tourist perception index during last summer's heat waves. The same thing happened to Italy and Greece. This summer's waves have already dropped tourist satisfaction in Spain by eight points, the highest drop at the moment. Instead, the climate perception index found that tourists visiting the UK in the summer of 2022 showed a better overall perception of the destination and their experience during the trip. Also the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland or Denmark, cooler destinations that increased demand to the detriment of the Mediterranean. "They are the travelers who are looking for less frequent destinations and milder temperatures", they conclude from the tourist board.
The big question for the sector is this: could tourists move away from countries affected by drought and high temperatures? Yes, answer the employers. In fact, it already happens, point out Exceltur and the Tourism Board. Despite the fact that 2023 is a record year after the pandemic, we need to think about the future, they point out. On the positive side, and aside from the alarming part of the situation, the private sector highlights that the rise in temperatures causes the deseasonalization of the high season, which lasts more weeks, between spring and autumn.
Europe is still "the new era of extreme climate, which will transform the economy", pointed out the Financial Times a few days ago. And Spain is no stranger to this change. The tourism sector in Spain is therefore at a crossroads to which it will have to adapt. According to Exceltur, tourism will close the year with the representation of 12.9% of GDP. Last year, 61% of the economic recovery was thanks to tourism. In other words, the climate is at stake, but also the country's main economic sector.
