The process has happened in Catalonia, even if it is very present in the rest of Spain. This is seen in the survey published today by La Vanguardia. The mobilization of independence as a driving force behind the vote, whether in favor or against, is declining, while other issues are gaining importance on the Catalan social agenda. Politics are cycles.
These days we are witnessing the agony of Ciutadans also in Catalonia, where it was born in 2006. It emerged a few months after the new Statute was approved by Parliament. And it expires precisely when the Amnesty law is being processed to conclude the judicial consequences of the process, which reached its climax in 2017. The clash with Catalan independence is no longer enough to survive and the vote is concentrated again in the PP, which guarantees this aspect, but also represents an alternative to the left in others.
Independenceism continues to represent a good part of Catalan society, but polls show that it is unmotivated. The figure of Carles Puigdemont can be used for Junts to compete with ERC, but not to lead an overwhelming current like the one experienced years ago and in no case to culminate a process of secession as the former president proclaimed this week.
Aware that the concerns of many pro-independence voters are now focused on other issues, Puigdemont tried to demonstrate at his conference that, despite the distance, he knows the current needs of Catalans, such as the drought, the quality of education or the indecisions about infrastructures. He placed special emphasis on financing, in a kind of return to the "Spain steals from us" from the beginning of the process. But La Vanguardia's survey reveals that Junts has lost points in the management efficiency image attributed to Convergència.
Presenting yourself as the most genuinely pro-independence candidate is no longer an extraordinary element of mobilization. At least, he can't be the only one. Oriol Junqueras sensed some time ago that Catalan society would move towards other priorities after the failure of the unilateral declaration of independence. But ERC's options have been held back by a poor parliamentary majority, the complexes with respect to Junts, a timid management and leadership from the Generalitat.
That's why Salvador Illa has become the alternative after crossing the desert for more than a decade. The amnesty did not quite convince almost half of its voters, but it also did not bother them so much to plant it. In order for him to rule the Island, however, some conditions would have to be met. The survey does not predict a pro-independence majority that would prevent him from passing and this would have been difficult to build given the accumulated grudges. But Illa would need the support of one of the two major pro-independence parties, Junts or ERC.
Without the course of pardons and amnesty, neither of these two possibilities could even be put on the table, although right now only the second seems viable. For some time, the PSC leader believed it was possible to build bridges with the former. He tried to add them to the pacts in deputations and Barcelona City Council with Xavier Trias. Finally, he came to the conclusion that that way is dead as long as Puigdemont controls the reins of Junts in a personal and non-transferable way. Instead, he sees agreements with ERC as feasible.
If the result of the 12-M resembles that of the survey, the Republicans will have to resolve a dilemma that is not easy to manage internally. Entering the government with the PSC or even a tripartite with the commons would leave Junts all the space for the opposition. Allowing the investiture of Illa and supporting budgets from outside the Executive is more bearable, but it means giving up a share of power that ERC took a long time to achieve. Finally, sticking to it does not lead to an electoral repeat of which they would appear as guilty when many Catalans point to politicians as the worst problem.
Many surprises may arise between now and May 12, but now the survey detects a clear desire for change in Catalan society. Although citizens may encounter a deadlock.
