If wars were previously fought over oil, perhaps in the future they will be fought over water. Because the so-called blue gold can become the next field of military, economic and geopolitical confrontation between countries. From 2020 to today there have been some 202 conflicts (armed, skirmishes or mere casual accidents) in the world related to water, according to the Pacific Institute database, ranging from sabotage in the Ukrainian war, to the unrest in Yemen, attacks on infrastructure in Mali or the clashes between Sudan and Egypt over the water of the Nile.
According to a United Nations study, there are approximately 300 areas in the world where a conflict over water is predicted in 2025. Years ago the then UN Secretary, Kofi Annan, spoke of a “fierce competition for fresh water ” and more recently Pope Francis even wondered if the lack of water could lead humanity to a new world war.
A few days ago, the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), attached to the Ministry of Defense, published an analysis document whose author, Mar Hidalgo García, warns that the demographic and energy macrotrends so far this century, together with the panorama increasingly uncertain geopolitical, are putting a lot of pressure on the so-called water-energy-food nexus, which will end up causing “tensions and incompatibilities.” The debate on water resources has been on the table for years but has now re-emerged in full force. Because?
Demographic pressure is reaching its limit. It is estimated that the world population will soon reach 9 billion people. Today the planet has three times as many inhabitants as it did in the middle of the 20th century. More than 733 million people still live in countries with high or critical water stress, almost 10% of the total. Some 2.2 billion still do not have safe access to drinking water. By 2025, two-thirds of the world's population could at some point face water scarcity, even in developed countries – just think of the aquifer crisis in California – according to the WWF.
Increasing urbanization threatens to aggravate demographic tension. According to the United Nations, 70% of the population will live in cities by 2050. Furthermore, almost all of this urban expansion will occur in developing countries, where the population lives in informal settlements, with no or restricted access to water. drinking, sanitation, electricity or waste management.
Well, 75% of the world's primary energy and 80% of food are consumed in urban areas, according to the study Threats in Water–Energy–Food–Land Nexus Military and Economic Conflict, by the University of Athens. As a consequence of these macro cities, global energy consumption will increase by 80% by 2050, according to data from the Water Footprint Network.
Without water there is no energy. It is a component of energy generation in thermal power plants and is used as a cooling system in these facilities and in nuclear power plants. In 2025, the global energy system used 10% of total global freshwater withdrawals. It is also the raw material for hydroelectric energy and is key for the production of biofuels.
Thus, water consumption in the global electricity sector can increase by up to 50% in 2050 compared to 2020. Furthermore, this increase will take place in half of the countries that are already in a situation of water stress, according to the Troubled waters study: Estimating the role of the power sector in future water scarcity crises, published in Energy magazine.
Renewables also have a water cost. With respect to biofuels, which aspire to be a fifth of the fuel for global transportation by the middle of this century, we must keep in mind, reminds the IEEE, that “the water footprint of this type of energy could be 70 to 400 times greater than in conventional fossil energy sources.”
As far as green hydrogen is concerned, the production of one ton through electrolysis requires an average of 9 tons of water. But Juan Ignacio de la Fuente, an energy consultant who has closely studied water tensions with renewables, believes that “we are reaching a dilemma in which we will have to choose water for life or for industrial development.” “You cannot bet on renewables without solving the previous problem of water infrastructure. "It's like starting the house from the roof."
According to their calculations, one ton of hydrogen actually needs not 9, but 18 tons of water, taking into account that water purification and treatment systems require about two tons of impure water to produce one ton of purified water, necessary for this. energy source.
Without water there is no food either. To meet the demand to sustain the population increase, it is estimated that food production will have to increase by 60%. And water is the main resource in the food supply chain. Not only for agricultural irrigation, but because it is an essential component for the food production cycle: from pumping water in the fields, to processing, transportation and refrigeration, through the production of fertilizers.
And here another factor comes into play: drought and climate change. For agriculture it is a huge challenge. Water covers 70% of the earth, but only 3% of it is fresh water. Furthermore, water from aquifers is consumed at a faster rate than it is replaced. Increasing more efficient irrigation systems requires greater energy consumption. Obtaining fresh water through desalination is the most expensive option and the one that requires the greatest energy consumption.
Likewise, renewables generate a negative externality for the agricultural sector "because it is causing farmers to obtain greater profitability by renting their land for the installation of solar panels than by cultivating them, which can cause a decrease in crops," warns the IEEE.
Antonio Turiel, CSIC researcher and essayist, remembers that desalinated water also needs energy (and therefore consumes water). And its filtration is complex, so it is often necessary to mix it with fresh water. And climate change threatens to break the equation. “Not only is there drought but there are also floods in other areas of the planet that do not have developed systems to store and reuse rain. The point of no return has already been passed, we do not know what climate we will have in the future, or if the seasons will even disappear.”
In this context, water is destined to become an increasingly expensive commodity. An asset of high economic and strategic value. In fact, $1 trillion of investment each year would be needed between now and 2030 to alleviate the gap, according to the Pacific Institute.
Marc Garrigasait manages Panda Agriculture
