Registrations of electrified vehicles, that is, both pure electric and plug-in hybrids, will barely reach 33% of the total in Spain in 2030, which will leave the country far from meeting its objectives, according to the latest forecasts from the sales association Ganvam. .
"At this rate we will not reach any of the objectives or reach a park of five million electrified units in 2030," stated the general director of the association, Fernando Miguélez, during the presentation of the forecasts for this decade.
Sellers estimate that this year the weight of electrified passenger cars with respect to the entire market will be around 15%, compared to 12% in 2023. It will increase year by year, but at an average of three percentage points in each year, which It will only serve to reach quotas in 2030 that several European countries already exceed today.
"In 2030 we would reach percentages of 7% of the entire automobile fleet, of 25 million passenger cars," said the manager. The percentage is equivalent to 1.75 million electric cars, far from five million.
The association has also offered its annual enrollment forecast through the end of the decade. Sales of new cars will increase this year by 7.6%, up to 998,150 units, and will evolve from that moment on at annual rates of between 2.6% and 5.8%, up to 1.23 million units in 2030. At a level more similar to that before the pandemic than to the 1.6 million reached before the 2008 crisis.
The key to the market's progression will be above all in individuals, who this year have increased vehicle purchases after three years of decline. "In the 2023 figures we are only wrong by 2%, so we are reliable in the forecasts," says Miguélez.
Beyond the figures and percentages, Ganvam predicts a change in market dynamics in which, after two years of supply shortages due to the chip crisis and logistical problems, there will be an arrival of new models and price drops. of electric cars. "We see a scenario of unlimited supply," he says.
"We will see how the electric vehicle manufacturers enter into a price war and begin to lower prices" with the emergence of Chinese models, he indicated. "European manufacturers will suffer in the search for alternatives," she added.
Ganvam does not have forecasts on the percentage of Chinese cars in the market as a whole, but it does predict that the Asian cars as a whole will reach 30% by mid-decade, when currently it is around 20%.
His prediction is also that Brussels will put some type of restrictions on vehicles manufactured outside the EU. The paradox may arise, Miguélez indicated, that Tesla cars produced in Germany receive specific aid and Renault cars from outside the EU do not.
This regulation could encourage Chinese companies to set up factories in the EU. "We will see how these Chinese brands establish themselves in Europe to be able to access this aid," he stated.
