The vice president of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, warned this Wednesday that the Credit Suisse crisis "will have an impact on credit conditions in Europe" in addition to that related to interest rate rises.
"Without a doubt, the episodes that we are experiencing are going to suppose an additional element because the banks are going to look more at liquidity," he assured in an act organized by the Association for the Progress of Management (APD).
The ECB's forecast, indicated its vice-president, is that from now on banks "look more at liquidity" and make financing more difficult, which "will cause consumption to be affected and will have an impact on economic growth."
Guindos estimated the growth forecast for the euro zone this year at 1%, better than that predicted in December, and warned that underlying inflation will continue to operate as an element of uncertainty in the coming months. The margins of the companies, he indicated, will not grow as strongly this year as in 2022.
The banks, he pointed out, "are fine" and have "high liquidity". However, there are two elements of concern, which are the 'hedge funds', or funds with high-risk hedge operators, and the speed at which banks can decapitalize "at the click of a button."
"The main source of uncertainty is now the non-financial banking sector, the 'hedge funds', which can become the main source of instability," he said.
The other danger has to do with "the speed with which a bank empties" in times of digitization. "With two clicks you can move a deposit from one site to another and that, together with social networks, are novel elements that must be considered," she warned.
"Banking is better, but the world has changed a lot and now there is an acceleration. The environment in which a bank's loss of liquidity can occur has accelerated and is very different from ten years ago," he added.
Guindos also called on banks to avoid "complacency" at the risk of new crises such as Credit Suisse's. "It was not a trivial process and banks have to continue to be aware that the situation can happen again," he said.
The vice president of the ECB has also defended the creation of a single capital market in the EU that avoids cases such as that of Ferrovial, which tomorrow will address at its shareholders' meeting the transfer of its headquarters from Spain to the Netherlands.
"It is very important to have a capital market union where listing and supervisory conditions are identical in the EU and in the euro zone, and even to have common insolvency rules."
He has also indicated that, regardless of the political effect of the decision, "those who are most at stake are the shareholders." "If they have made a correct decision, that will be seen in the value of the action," he added.
