Democracy is still in good health, but its life expectancy is shortening generation after generation. If it is not able to provide practical solutions to the problems that affect young people, starting with economic security, its days as a hegemonic system of government are numbered.
The new world barometer from Open Society Foundations, which La Vanguardia publishes exclusively today, leaves no room for doubt. Although 86% of the 36,000 respondents in 30 countries prefer to live in a democratic country, this figure drops to 57% among those under 36 years of age. What's more, 42% of these people, enrolled in the so-called Z and Millennial generations, believe that military dictatorships are better forms of government and 35% would prefer to live in a civil but authoritarian regime, without division of powers or a parliamentary system. cash.
The survey was carried out based on the opinions of some 30,000 people, who were interviewed last spring. Open Society Foundations is now publishing it to coincide with the United Nations General Assembly, which opens this coming weekend in New York.
On the table of any leader, whether democrat, military or authoritarian, whether he governs a rich country or a developing one, is the polycrisis, a term that brings together the main challenges of humanity and that are a priority in any society: poverty, inequality , climate crisis, technological disruptions, security and corruption.
People who are between 18 and 36 years old do not see it clear that democracy can solve these problems and improve their lives. Unlike their parents, they have grown up surrounded by new tensions, in increasingly polarized democracies, with political violence on the surface.
58% consider that during 2024 the political tension in their country will lead to physical violence. Two thirds of the French and Americans are convinced of this. Racial conflicts broke out in France last spring and the United States enters a new electoral cycle characterized by the political aspirations of Donald Trump.
77% of Colombians and 73% of Argentines believe that political violence will spread through the streets of their cities next year. The socio-economic problems they face are enormous and their leaders seem incapable of facing them with guarantees.
The hardest experience of young people in moving forward with their lives erodes their faith in democracy. Their parents, people over 56 years old, believe 71% that there is no better system. Only 20% support a military dictatorship. The dividends of peace, the benefits of multilateralism among the most advanced democracies, contribute to this trust, but for the Z and the Millennials everything seems more difficult.
The survey results are "sober and alarming," acknowledges Mark Malloch-Brown, president of Open Society. "The majority of people around the world still want to live in a democracy," he adds, "but if we look at each generation, faith is fading among young people as their doubts about democracy's ability to achieve tangible improvements in their lives. This must change."
Earlier this year, Hakainde Hichileme, president of Zambia, commenting on the difficulties facing the ruler in a developing country, said that "you can't eat democracy." He was referring to the urgent need to guarantee the food security of its citizens, even if it is through undemocratic means.
Poverty and inequality affect all societies, even the most opulent ones. 49% of those surveyed acknowledged that at least one day during the last year they had a hard time eating. In the United States it was 52%, the same percentage as in Bangladesh.
Who can offer citizens what citizens want and need? Democracies still enjoy good press. Most consider that they are better than dictatorships at building schools and hospitals, protecting the environment and fighting crime.
Many times, even citizens of an authoritarian country believe that they live in a democracy. This is the case of China, for example, where 95% of the population says they prefer to live in a democratic country.
Only 20% believe that the effectiveness of an authoritarian state is greater. China, for example, failed in its attempt to keep Covid to zero. Draconian confinements and quarantines were a drag on the economy, which is facing a very uncertain period. Bolsonaro's Brazil also managed the pandemic very poorly. The ratio between population and deaths is one of the highest in the world.
The majority of humanity prefers to live in open societies, with division of powers and parliamentary systems that defend minorities. Only 7%, for example, are concerned about immigration and only 5% agree that people should be discriminated against because of their race, religion or sexual orientation.
Even so, 53% of those surveyed believe that their country is moving in the wrong direction. Likewise, almost half, 42%, believe that the laws do not guarantee their personal safety. The percentage is especially high in Latin American countries: 74% in Brazil, 73% in Argentina, 65% in Colombia and 60% in Mexico. But in France, a highly mobilized society, with strikes, protests and recurring street violence, half of the population thinks the same. This perception of insecurity explains the rise of the extreme right.
Trust in politicians erodes even faster than trust in democracy. One in three respondents considers that their representatives do not work for the common good. In the United States, one of the democracies hardest hit by populism, only 29% think that politicians put the general interest before their own.
A very clear example is that of immigration. For 93% of humanity it is not a problem. What's more, 66% believe that rich countries should open safe routes for immigrants and strengthen their legal guarantees when they arrive in the destination country. Far-right populist parties, however, make immigration an electoral weapon.
The hypocrisy of many states in the face of the climate crisis also explains the deterioration in trust. It is the priority issue in the vast majority of countries consulted, where frustration with their rulers grows every time inclement weather hits their daily lives. 70% of those surveyed believe that the climate will have a negative impact on their lives during 2024, without their leaders doing enough to mitigate it.
The future of democracy has often been linked to the prevalence of the United States as the most powerful nation in the world. This, at least, is how the White House approaches its fight with China.
China, however, despite the internal repression and economic difficulties it faces, will be the most influential country in the world in 2030, according to the majority of those surveyed. Furthermore, its dominance will be mostly positive. 45% think so, compared to 25% who think the opposite. Support for China's global leadership soars in the global south and sinks in the richer, more democratic north.
The geostrategic pulse, however, as reflected in the Open Society Foundations study, one of the largest carried out to date, will not decide the future of democracy in the world, but rather the capacity of the system itself to offer much more than promises to the new generations.
