In a conflict that has been static for many decades and has not stopped rotting for the last 20 years, it may be difficult to believe in the possibility of real change. However, there is no doubt that Hamas' criminal assault has blown up the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians. The coming weeks will determine whether the war in Gaza plunges the Middle East into even greater chaos or whether, despite Hamas's atrocities, Israel can begin to lay the foundations for regional stability and, one day, peace.
Change is inevitable due to the severity of Hamas' crimes. More than 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, many of them women and children, were murdered in their homes, in the streets, in the kibbutzim, at a music festival. Perhaps 150 more have been taken to Gaza and locked up in makeshift dungeons. Israel's belief that it could indefinitely control Palestinian hostility with money and airstrikes collapsed at dawn on October 7, when the first Hamas bulldozer breached the security fence. Hamas has opted for mass murder and there is no turning back.
Gaza now awaits a major Israeli ground offensive. Its scope and success will determine the legacy of Hamas's bloody assault. So will the fundamental choice now facing Israeli politicians in the wake of the worst catastrophe in the country's history: will they unite or continue to exploit divisions for their own benefit? A third factor is the options of Israel's neighbors in the Middle East, including Iran.
In the coming weeks and months, Israeli leaders have a great responsibility to temper their understandable desire for fire and revenge with practical calculations about the country's long-term interests and an unwavering respect for the rules of war. They made their people vulnerable by not foreseeing the attack that Hamas was planning. They should not aggravate the error by not clearly foreseeing the future again.
The need for vision begins with the imminent ground offensive. The Israel Defense Forces will justifiably hit Hamas. Now, with what depth and how hard? Israel will be tempted to unleash an outbreak of briefly satisfying violence. Its defense minister has called Hamas fighters “human animals” and announced a blockade of food, water and energy. Israeli officials (and President Joe Biden) have begun comparing Hamas to the Islamic State, an Islamist group that the United States has pledged to eradicate.
That comparison is dangerous because, although Hamas deserves to be eradicated, achieving that goal will be impossible in an enclave of 2 million impoverished people with nowhere to flee. Rather than with the Islamic State, it is better to make the comparison with the 9/11 attacks of 2001, not only because of the pain suffered by Israel, but also because the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq show how quickly the costs of an invasion, which is precisely Hamas's calculation.
Right now, moderation is more important than ever. Israel is interested, because street fighting is dangerous and the hostages are defenseless. Restraint allows the operation to be militarily sustainable and preserves international support. Avoid playing into the hands of enemies who calculate that the death of Palestinian women and children will advance their cause. By clinging to its identity as a state that values human life, Israel becomes stronger.
Moderation in the ground offensive depends on the decisions of Israeli politicians. Before the war they were destroying the country because of a new law designed to rein in the Supreme Court. For now, grief and horror have brought people together again, but the left blames Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government for poisoning relations with the military and security services over the Supreme Court affair, and of neglecting security in Gaza with his fixation on helping Jewish settlers in the West Bank. The right counters that calls for civil disobedience by senior officials opposed to Netanyahu have been a green light for Hamas.
Netanyahu should try to use his new war cabinet announced this week to unite Israel. Only by healing his own politics will the country be able to manage what is happening in Gaza. Netanyahu will not want to help his most likely rivals. However, he was the one in charge when he hit Hamas, and his political career is ending. After spending a lifetime seeking power at any price, he should now put the country before himself.
A unified, centrist government will also be better placed to address the latest set of challenges: Middle East politics. Israel will be in grave danger if the Gaza war extends to its northern border with Lebanon, where tensions with Hezbollah, a formidably armed militia, are already growing worryingly. The longer and bloodier the fighting in Gaza, the more Hezbollah will feel the need to support its brothers. There is also the possibility of war with Iran, which has replaced Arab governments as the sponsor of Palestinian violence. Not even Western supporters of treating that country with a heavy hand harbor such a desire.
A broader war would scupper the détente, built on the Abraham Accords, between Israel and its Arab neighbors, including Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and, potentially, Saudi Arabia. This group of countries defends a new Middle East, pragmatic and focused on economic development rather than ideology. This is a still incipient development, but it has the potential to become a force for moderation and, possibly, even security.
If only by surviving, the Abraham Accords could emerge stronger from this crisis. However, Hamas has shown that the signatories' abandonment of the Palestinians is a mistake. Israel and its Arab partners need a new, optimistic vision for Gaza and the West Bank as an alternative to Iran's cult of violence and killing.
And that brings us back to the fighting in Gaza. How are they going to conclude? Israel's options are not good: the occupation is unsustainable, a Hamas government is unacceptable; the government of its rival, Fatah, is unsustainable; an Arab peace force is unattainable; and a puppet government is unimaginable. If Israel destroys Hamas in Gaza and withdraws, who knows what destructive forces will fill the void left?
Therefore, Israeli strategists must start thinking about how to create the conditions for life alongside Palestinians, however remote such a prospect may seem today. All of these elements may play a role: a brief period of martial law in Gaza, the search for mutually acceptable Palestinian leaders, and the good offices of Arab intermediaries. The only way to eradicate Hamas is for Israel and its Arab allies to achieve stability and, one day, peace.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
