The PNV finished closing the door on Feijóo before 10:00 p.m. on Sunday, when with half the vote counted it was already evident that, in the best of cases for popular interests, its leader would need Vox to reach Moncloa. The option of an extraordinary result for the PP, an inauguration by a simple majority without Vox in the equation and a hypothetical jeltzale support, very complicated, but which was within the possible, was disappearing. The PNV has confirmed in the last hours something that was evident since Sunday night, but that was seen coming from before. Now, he is preparing a negotiation with the PSOE in which he will seek an armored investiture agreement against possible breaches.
Speculation about a possible meeting in the short term between Núñez Feijóo and the PNV began when his arrival as the PP presidency was announced in the spring of last year, replacing the reviled Pablo Casado.
Feijóo had maintained a good relationship with the lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, and was more inclined to understand the plurinationality of Spain. The PP's relations with the jeltzales had been broken since the motion of no confidence that, with the endorsement of the PNV, led Pedro Sánchez to Moncloa. With the arrival of the current president of the PP, however, both parties saw the option of building bridges, opening a line of communication and normalizing relations.
The PP was interested because it focused and opened a path to reach power alternative to that of the ultra-right. The PNV, meanwhile, has always felt more comfortable in the centrality of the political tableau, negotiating with each other, and with the only red line of Vox, a formation that according to the moment has threatened to outlaw them if it came to power. In Sabin Etxea they were not comfortable in a relationship of zero dialogue with the PP and, in addition, letting himself be loved by the popular forced Sánchez to take care of his relationship with the PNV.
The Basque nationalists felt, at times, mistreated by the President of the Government during the last legislature and they did not see with good eyes how on occasions he seemed to take more care of his relations with EH Bildu. The normalization of relations with the PP and the hypothesis of a future understanding allowed them to revalue their votes.
This possibility, however, was losing strength as the PP got closer to Vox. The turning point, practically of no return, occurred after the 28-M elections, with the post-election pacts throughout Spain, at the municipal and regional level. The PNV had always said that an eventual understanding with the PP could not happen if Vox was in the equation. In addition, the May elections showed that the PNV is suffering obvious wear and tear, which coincides with a rise of EH Bildu. The playing field was narrowing for the jeltzales, with little room for flirting on either side.
During the last electoral campaign, the PNV left the door to the PP practically closed. He did it for the aforementioned two reasons: what is called the "whitening" of Vox by the PP and, secondly, because of the electoral risk in elections marked by polarization in a state key and with EH Bildu hot on his heels.
However, there was still a loophole for a hypothetical agreement. If the PP achieved an extraordinary result, reaching 160 seats, the PNV option could have been activated. This path went through an investiture by Núñez Feijóo by a simple majority, without Vox in the equation, and with the sole support of the PNV and some other minority partner.
It was a risky option with less than a year to go before elections to the Basque Parliament, but it would have allowed it to position itself as the party with a political vision that managed to keep out the extreme right, avoid the blockade and, finally, obtain counterparties that would make it profitable in Euskadi.
That scenario, in any case, was far from taking place, and 24 hours after the start of the electoral count Andoni Ortuzar phoned Feijóo yesterday to confirm that they will not negotiate his investiture. The PP had dropped that its leader had contacted the PNV and that he had not received a slam. The jeltzales did not take long to qualify it. They are not for speculations of that nature.
The loophole that remained for a hypothetical understanding with the PP evaporated as soon as it was seen that Vox votes would be essential. Agreeing with the popular and without the extreme right in the equation was very complicated; the need of those of Abascal, meanwhile, made it completely impossible.
It is not, in this case, an electoral calculation. The impossibility of reaching agreements that go through Vox is in the DNA of the PNV, a party that keeps its historical memory alive.
The PNV, in any case, would have had a very difficult time agreeing with the PP on the investiture of Feijóo, even without Vox. In May 2018, he supported the budgets of Mariano Rajoy and it was thought that he had saved the legislature (later the motion of censure would arrive). At that time, however, the PNV found itself in a position of strength.
EH Bildu was still accusing the brilliant irruption of Podemos in Euskadi, and the difference in the last elections to the Basque Parliament had been almost 175,000 votes. On Sunday, however, the jeltzales obtained less than a thousand votes for the nationalist coalition, taking into account only the Basque Autonomous Community. EH Bildu also won seats, thanks to the deputy he obtained in Navarra and, adding the votes in both communities, he also won in votes.
The struggle between the two formations has been very tight and the trends are opposite, so that the PNV's margin to risk has been minimized. In less than a year, probably in June 2024, there will be elections to the Basque Parliament.
Meanwhile, the PNV will try to correctly detect the conditions that are causing this dangerous storm, in which its wear and the rise of EH Bildu converge, boosted by a pragmatic and social turn that is allowing it to be seen as a credible alternative, its great objective.
Those from Ortuzar carried out a process of "active listening" a few months ago in which they detected several factors to correct. The PNV came to assume and publicly express that a part of the electorate, including its voters, perceive "a certain image of cronyism" in its administration, too much "complacency" or traces of a "masculinized" and "out-of-fashion" party. The 60-page document offers jeltzals a first diagnosis of what may be wrong, and the latest results urge them to act immediately.
One of the action fronts for the PNV will be the probable negotiation with Pedro Sánchez. The focus of Basque politics has moved in part to Madrid, and the jeltzales will have to squeeze the negotiation of a legislature pact with Pedro Sánchez.
The PNV has already advanced in the campaign that this time it wants to protect against possible breaches of the pact that they can reach. With the 2019-2023 legislature over, they are not satisfied with the degree of compliance with the 12 points of the investiture agreement sealed in December 2019. It is evident that an important part of the agreement has not been fulfilled, especially with regard to full compliance with the Statute of Gernika.
The contents that the PNV will seek to include in a new legislature agreement are yet to be defined, although some will not be very different from those that were included four years ago. The first objective will be to seal, this time and definitively, compliance with the Statute, four decades after its approval.
The jeltzales will also seek investment in infrastructure that is the responsibility of the State, prioritizing the arrival of high-speed rail as early as possible. Linked to this point, the PNV will try to involve the central government in the development of the Atlantic corridor and, in particular, in the improvement of high-speed connections on the Bidasoa border.
From there, the PNV will have to strive to find agreements that encourage the adhesion and support of the Basque citizenry. This negotiation, not in vain, can become an asset once EH Bildu has announced support "without political price" for the possible investiture of Pedro Sánchez.
