It was never explained why Nadia Calviño tried to leave Pedro Sánchez's Government when she had not been Minister of Economy for even a year and presented her very immature candidacy for manager of the IMF. The position had, and has, enormous global relevance, enough to dazzle any possible candidate to occupy it, but it was neither the best time for a newly formed minority coalition government, nor did it accumulate the necessary track record to nominate one of its members for a mission of such caliber. Whatever the cause, it was clear that Calviño was willing to jump ship if the opportunity was worth it.
Sánchez had chosen the future president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) for the Economy portfolio due to her European credentials. The Director General of the EU Budget was a guarantee of orthodoxy in economic management, a message that the president was interested in sending to Brussels after forming a coalition government that was not well received. In any case, the relevant portfolio for the purposes of spending and preparing public accounts, that of the Treasury, was out of reach, in the hands of a PSOE activist, María Jesús Montero.
The start of the new executive was marked by skirmishes between the sector linked to Podemos, the axis, now broken, between Pablo Iglesias and Yolanda Díaz and the liberal social democrat of Calviño, fiscal rigor and complete alignment with Brussels. In that first phase, she must not have felt very comfortable, since the letter and spirit of the coalition pact strongly marked the early days of the Government. Is that why the idea of the IMF?
And shortly after came the damn pandemic and confinement. Calviño's initial reaction was to maintain his position. The truth is that she found herself very isolated. Faced with calls for more public spending and to implement aid to the hardest hit sectors, he reacted by demanding control and remembering that the fiscal rules would end up returning and that then reducing the debt would be a drama. By the way, that is what Calviño is now doing when he directs, in the last days of the Spanish presidency of the EU, the meetings to reintroduce them, as Berlin and central Europe demand.
Going back to 2020, from the ECB to the governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos and the majority of the Government ministers, including the Minister of Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, were just at the opposite point. After many discussions, an agreement was reached and the spending spigot was opened as much as the most determined requested. In those days, Brussels agreed to suspend the application of its fiscal rules, broad scope for spending and debt. It was probably Calviño's most lonely phase in the Government; Orthodoxy had been radically discarded by all the governments of the world. Although European funds would later arrive, next generation, and his revitalized role before the European authorities allowed him to recover and even increase his political authority.
Now, thinking about his replacement, Sánchez has only publicly given one clue: “both inside and outside the Government there are powerful economists.” Definitely. Among the criteria when choosing the new minister, one defines a profile similar to that of Calviño, which is derived from the return of these community rules. Although the moment, on the eve of the European elections and with a new Commission now completely unknown, imposes a dense fog for that task.
But the most relevant reading of the replacement election will be internal politics. Calviño was in charge of Brussels and economic orthodoxy against the left wing of the executive; with the very valuable help of Montero, the guardian of the box. A very functional tandem. But Calviño did not occupy a prominent political role.
And since Sánchez will have to appoint a new first vice presidency, among other things to limit the scope of Díaz's second vice presidency, the Minister of Finance could perfectly well be the one chosen, who would thus remain politically responsible as well as economically. According to Sánchez's comment, she could not be Calviño's replacement as she is not an economist. The alternative of the newcomer directly being the first vice president seems difficult. If he is already part, Escrivá has been the most mentioned, there is no problem if he is not. His passive, who has been the victim of harsh attacks from the financial sector for his pension reform.
The political waist will be more necessary than ever in this new legislature, in which a conservative front, on the economic right, is taking shape around the parliamentary groups of PNV and Junts; twelve parliamentarians. The novelty, in essence, is the more active participation of Carles Puigdemont's group. And proposals for tax cuts and economic liberalism are announced from that angle; in addition to additional powers for their respective territories. On this front, Budgets are the instrument par excellence. And this is Montero territory.
The new head of Economy will have a particularly relevant matter on her hands. The relationship with the bank, one of the secular Spanish economic powers, was not Calviño's strong point, contrary to what stereotypes may suggest due to his location on the right side of the social democratic galaxy. Will Sánchez want to change the third in this area? Perhaps that is why the name of David Vegara, an economist with management experience in the time of Pedro Solbes and director of Sabadell, is suggested in some quarters. The latter link could constitute an obstacle, from the point of view of image and incompatibilities. In addition to the dilemma of placing a Catalan in such a relevant portfolio when you want to escape the concentration of activity and messages in that territory. The president of Aena, Maurici Lucena, would find himself in a similar position, despite being a man highly valued in the business world.
